Q.Suppose you have two coins which appear identical in your pocket. You know that one is fair and one is 2-headed. If you take one out, toss it and get a head, what is the probability that it was a fair coin?
🔒You're viewing a preview — the full solution, concept, methods & PYQ mapping are locked.
🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
The key idea is Conditional Probability — we update the probability of which coin was chosen based on the observed outcome (a head).
Step 1: Define events.
Let F = "fair coin chosen", T = "two-headed coin chosen", and H = "toss shows head".
Prior: P(F)=P(T)=21.
Step 2: Likelihoods.
P(H∣F)=21 (fair coin gives head half the time).
P(H∣T)=1 (two-headed coin always gives head).
Step 3: Apply Bayes' theorem. …
Using Bayes' theorem, the probability that the coin was fair given that a head was tossed is 31.
Why conditional probability is the right tool
The question asks: given that we observed a head, what’s the chance the coin was fair? That’s a classic inverse probability problem. We know the probabilities of heads if the coin is fair or two-headed, but we need to reverse the condition — from effect (head) back to cause (which coin). This is exactly what Bayes’ theorem does.
The intuition: a fair coin gives heads half the time, but a two-headed coin gives heads every time. So if we see a head, it’s more likely to have come from the two-headed coin. But we don’t know which coin we picked — each was equally likely at the start. Bayes’ theorem lets us update that initial 50–50 chance using the evidence.
Bayes’ theorem (for two events A and B):
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A)
Here A = “coin is fair”, B = “toss shows head”.
Step-by-step solution
-
Define the events clearly
Let F be the event that the chosen coin is fair.
Let H be the event that the toss shows a head.
We want P(F∣H).
-
Write down the prior probabilities
Since the two coins look identical and you pick one at random:
P(F)=21,P(not F)=21
- Write down the likelihoods
- If the coin is fair, probability of a head is 21:
P(H∣F)=21
- If the coin is two-headed, probability of a head is 1:
P(H∣not F)=1
- Find the total probability of getting a head By the law of total probability:
P(H)=P(H∣F)P(F)+P(H∣not F)P(not F)
Substitute:
P(H)=21⋅21+1⋅21=41+21=43
- Apply Bayes’ theorem …
Method: Bayes' Theorem (reverse the conditioning)
Use Bayes when you know P(effect∣cause) but want P(cause∣effect) — updating a prior after seeing evidence.
Steps
Step 1: List the causes with their prior probabilities.
Here the causes are "fair coin" and "two-headed coin", each with prior 21.
Step 2: Write each likelihood — the chance of the observed evidence under each cause.
P(head∣fair)=21, P(head∣two-headed)=1. …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Answering 21 because "there are two coins".
Why it's wrong: observing a head is evidence — the two-headed coin produces heads twice as readily as the fair one — so the posterior for "fair" drops below 21. Correct approach: update the prior with the likelihoods via Bayes, giving 31.
Mistake 2: Forgetting the two-headed coin's likelihood in the denominator. …
Showing the 12 most recent of 30 on this concept.
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-AN1 markMCQQ.A card is drawn randomly from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If A is the event of getting a diamond card and B is the event of getting an ace card, then the probability that exactly one of the events among A and B to occur is (A) 5215 (B) 134 (C) 5217 (D) 135
›Reveal solutionSolution
The probability that exactly one of the events A (diamond) or B (ace) occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities minus twice the probability of both occurring. The result is 5215, which corresponds to option (A).
We want the probability that exactly one of the two events happens — that is, either we draw a diamond that is not an ace, or we draw an ace that is not a diamond. This is a classic "exclusive or" (XOR) situation.
Why this approach works:
If we simply add P(A)+P(B), we count the case where both occur (the ace of diamonds) twice. To get exactly one, we subtract that double-counted overlap once more than usual — hence P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B).
-
Identify the probabilities of each event individually.
- There are 13 diamonds in a deck of 52, so P(A)=5213=41.
- There are 4 aces, so P(B)=524=131.
-
Find the probability that both events occur (the intersection).
- Only one card is both a diamond and an ace: the ace of diamonds.
- So P(A∩B)=521.
-
Apply the formula for exactly one event.
- Exactly one of A or B occurs means: (A and not B) or (B and not A).
- The probability is:
P(exactly one)=P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B)
- Substitute the values:
5213+524−2⋅521=5213+4−2=5215
- Check against the options. …
-
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-18-FN1 markMCQQ.A pair of dice is thrown twice in succession. The probability of getting prime numbers on both the dice in first throw and composite numbers on both the dice in second throw is (A) 2161 (B) 161 (C) 361 (D) 91
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to treat the two throws as independent events, multiply their probabilities, and note that each die has 3 prime numbers (2,3,5) and 2 composite numbers (4,6) — 1 is neither. The final probability is 161.
We start by recalling what “prime” and “composite” mean for the numbers 1 through 6 on a standard die.
- Prime numbers on a die: 2, 3, 5 (three numbers).
- Composite numbers on a die: 4, 6 (two numbers).
- Neither: 1 (not prime, not composite).
The problem asks: first throw — both dice show primes; second throw — both dice show composites. The two throws are independent, so we multiply probabilities.
- Probability of both dice showing primes in the first throw For one die, P(prime)=63=21. Since the two dice are independent,
P(both prime)=21×21=41.
- Probability of both dice showing composites in the second throw For one die, P(composite)=62=31. So,
P(both composite)=31×31=91.
- Combine the two independent events …
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.A, B1, B2, B3 are the events in a random experiment. If P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45, P(B1A)=0.05, P(B2A)=0.04, P(B3A)=0.03, then P(AB2)= (A) 196 (B) 198 (C) 1912 (D) 195
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a classic Bayes’ theorem problem: we are given prior probabilities for three mutually exclusive events and the conditional probabilities of A given each, and we need the posterior probability of B2 given A. The answer is 196, which corresponds to option (A).
We start with the concept: Bayes’ theorem lets us “reverse” conditional probabilities. Here, we know P(A∣Bi) and want P(B2∣A). The key is that the Bi form a partition of the sample space (they are the only possible “causes” of A), so we can compute P(A) using the law of total probability, then apply Bayes’ formula.
-
Identify the given data
- P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45
- P(A∣B1)=0.05, P(A∣B2)=0.04, P(A∣B3)=0.03 The events B1,B2,B3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (their probabilities sum to 1), so they form a partition.
-
Compute the total probability of A
By the law of total probability:
P(A)=P(B1)P(A∣B1)+P(B2)P(A∣B2)+P(B3)P(A∣B3)
Substitute:
P(A)=(0.25)(0.05)+(0.30)(0.04)+(0.45)(0.03)
Calculate each term:
- 0.25×0.05=0.0125
- 0.30×0.04=0.0120
- 0.45×0.03=0.0135 Sum:
P(A)=0.0125+0.0120+0.0135=0.0380
- Apply Bayes’ theorem for P(B2∣A) Bayes’ theorem states:
-
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If P(A)=83, P(A∣B)=P(B∣A)=53, then P(A∩B)+P(B)= (A) 4021 (B) 132 (C) 143 (D) 125
›Reveal solutionSolution
We use the given conditional probabilities to set up equations for P(A∩B) and P(B), then solve and sum them. The result is 4021, which corresponds to option (A).
We are told:
- P(A)=83
- P(A∣B)=53
- P(B∣A)=53
We need P(A∩B)+P(B).
Concept and intuition
Conditional probabilities like P(A∣B) relate the probability of the complement of A given B to the joint probability P(A∩B). Since P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B), we can write an equation linking P(B) and P(A∩B). Similarly, P(B∣A) gives a relation between P(A) and P(A∩B). This lets us solve for the unknowns.
Step-by-step solution
- Use P(B∣A) to find P(A∩B) By definition:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(B∩A)=53
Since P(B∩A)=P(A)−P(A∩B), we have:
P(A)P(A)−P(A∩B)=53
Substitute P(A)=83:
8383−P(A∩B)=53
Multiply both sides by 83:
83−P(A∩B)=53⋅83=409
So:
P(A∩B)=83−409=4015−409=406=203
- Use P(A∣B) to find P(B) By definition:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=53
Now P(A∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B). Substitute P(A∩B)=203:
P(B)P(B)−203=53
Multiply both sides by P(B): …
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-18-FN1 markMCQQ.Two balls are drawn at random from a bag containing 5 black balls and 3 white balls. If the random variable X denotes the number of white balls drawn, then the mean of X is (A) 21 (B) 85 (C) 43 (D) 83
›Reveal solutionSolution
The mean (expected value) of the number of white balls drawn when picking two balls without replacement from 5 black and 3 white balls is 43. The correct option is (C).
We are drawing two balls without replacement from a small finite set. The random variable X counts how many white balls appear. The mean (expected value) is just the average number of whites we’d see if we repeated the draw many times.
Key insight: Instead of listing all outcomes and probabilities, we can use the linearity of expectation. Each ball drawn is like a “mini-experiment”: define an indicator for whether the first ball is white, and another for the second. The expected number of whites is simply the sum of the probabilities that each individual draw yields a white ball. This works even though the draws are dependent — expectation adds regardless.
-
Define indicator variables
Let I1=1 if the first ball is white, 0 otherwise.
Let I2=1 if the second ball is white, 0 otherwise.
Then X=I1+I2.
-
Find the probability the first ball is white
Initially there are 3 white balls out of 8 total.
P(I1=1)=83.
- Find the probability the second ball is white By symmetry (or by the law of total probability), the chance the second ball is white is also 83. Why? Because without any information about the first draw, the second ball is equally likely to be any of the 8 original balls. So P(I2=1)=83. …
-
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.A typist claims that he prepares a typed page with typo errors of 1 per 10 pages. In a typing assignment of 40 pages, if the probability that the typo errors are at most 2 is p, then e2p= (A) 5 (B) 13 (C) 13e−2 (D) 5e−2
›Reveal solutionSolution
The problem models rare typos with a Poisson distribution (mean = 4 typos in 40 pages). The probability of at most 2 typos is p=e−4(1+4+8)=13e−4, so e2p=13e−2, matching option (C).
We have a typist who averages 1 typo per 10 pages. That’s a small rate for a rare event over a fixed “area” (pages). When events are rare and independent, the Poisson distribution is the natural choice — it counts the number of occurrences in a fixed interval when the average rate is known. Here, the “interval” is 40 pages.
Why Poisson?
- Each page has a small chance of a typo.
- Pages are independent.
- We care about the count of typos, not their arrangement. The Poisson distribution with parameter λ (the mean number of events in the interval) fits perfectly.
- Find the average number of typos in 40 pages. The rate is 1 typo per 10 pages, so in 40 pages:
λ=10 pages1 typo×40 pages=4.
- Set up the Poisson probability formula. For a Poisson random variable X with mean λ:
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk.
We need P(X≤2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2).
-
Compute each term.
- P(X=0)=0!e−4⋅40=e−4.
- P(X=1)=1!e−4⋅41=4e−4.
- P(X=2)=2!e−4⋅42=216e−4=8e−4.
-
Sum them to get p.
p=e−4+4e−4+8e−4=13e−4. …
- TG EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-12-FN1 markMCQQ.Two numbers b and c are chosen at random in succession without replacement from the set {1,2,3,…,9}. Then the probability that x2+bx+c>0, ∀x∈R is (A) 7229 (B) 8132 (C) 14345 (D) 12582
›Reveal solutionSolution
The condition x2+bx+c>0 for all real x is equivalent to the discriminant b2−4c<0. Counting ordered pairs (b,c) from {1,…,9} without replacement that satisfy b2<4c gives 29 favorable outcomes out of 72 total, so the probability is 7229, which is option (A).
Why this approach works
A quadratic x2+bx+c that is always positive (for every real x) must have no real roots and open upward. Since the coefficient of x2 is 1>0, the condition reduces to the discriminant being negative: b2−4c<0, i.e. b2<4c.
We are choosing b and c without replacement from {1,…,9}, so each ordered pair (b,c) with b=c is equally likely. The total number of such ordered pairs is 9×8=72. We just need to count how many of them satisfy b2<4c.
Step-by-step counting
1. Understand the inequality
We need b2<4c. Since c is an integer from 1 to 9, rewrite as c>4b2. For each b, we count the number of c values (different from b) that are strictly greater than b2/4.
2. Compute for each b
- b=1: b2/4=0.25, so c>0.25 means c≥1. All c from 1 to 9 except c=1 (since b=c) work. That gives 8 choices.
- b=2: b2/4=1, so c>1 means c≥2. Excluding c=2 leaves {3,4,5,6,7,8,9} → 7 choices.
- b=3: b2/4=2.25, so c>2.25 means c≥3. Excluding c=3 leaves {4,5,6,7,8,9} → 6 choices.
- b=4: b2/4=4, so c>4 means c≥5. Excluding c=4 (which isn't in this set anyway) gives {5,6,7,8,9} → 5 choices.
- b=5: b2/4=6.25, so c>6.25 means c≥7. Excluding c=5 (not in set) gives {7,8,9} → 3 choices.
- b=6: b2/4=9, so c>9 means c≥10, but max c is 9. No c works → 0 choices. …
- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-11-FN1 markMCQQ.The numbers 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13 are written on six distinct paper chits. If 3 of them are chosen at random, then the probability that the sum of the numbers on the obtained chits is divisible by 3, is (A) 207 (B) 206 (C) 205 (D) 51
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to classify each number by its remainder modulo 3, then count only those 3‑card combinations whose remainders sum to a multiple of 3. The probability is 207, which corresponds to option (A).
We have six numbers: 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13.
We pick 3 at random. The total number of ways is (36)=20.
We want the probability that the sum of the three chosen numbers is divisible by 3.
Why classify by remainder?
A number’s remainder modulo 3 determines whether it contributes 0, 1, or 2 to the total sum mod 3. The sum of three numbers is divisible by 3 exactly when the sum of their remainders is 0 mod 3. This turns a problem about specific numbers into a simple counting problem about remainder classes.
Step-by-step
-
Find each number’s remainder mod 3
- 2≡2
- 3≡0
- 5≡2
- 7≡1
- 11≡2
- 13≡1
So we have:
- Remainder 0: {3} → 1 number
- Remainder 1: {7, 13} → 2 numbers
- Remainder 2: {2, 5, 11} → 3 numbers
-
Which remainder combinations sum to 0 mod 3?
Let (r1, r2, r3) be the remainders of the three chosen numbers. We need r1+r2+r3≡0(mod3).
The possible triples (order doesn’t matter) are:
- (0,0,0) — all three have remainder 0
- (1,1,1) — all three have remainder 1
- (2,2,2) — all three have remainder 2
- (0,1,2) — one of each remainder
No other triple works (e.g., (0,0,1) sums to 1, etc.).
-
Count the number of 3‑card combinations for each case
- (0,0,0): Only 1 number with remainder 0, so impossible. Count = 0. …
-
- TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-FN1 markMCQQ.If P(BA)=103, P(AB)=54 and P(A∪B)=KP(B), then K1= (A) 4940 (B) 4340 (C) 101100 (D) 1
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the definitions of conditional probability to relate P(A∩B) to P(A) and P(B), then express P(A∪B) in terms of P(B) alone. The result is K1=4340.
We are given two conditional probabilities and a relation involving the union. The goal is to find K1, where P(A∪B)=KP(B). This is a problem about linking conditional probabilities to the basic probability of events, so we start by writing down what each conditional means.
Recall: P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B) and P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B). These are not symmetric — each gives a different ratio. Our job is to use them to find P(A) and P(A∩B) in terms of P(B), then compute P(A∪B).
- From P(A/B) we get P(A∩B) in terms of P(B).
P(A/B)=103⇒P(B)P(A∩B)=103
So
P(A∩B)=103P(B).
- From P(B/A) we get P(A) in terms of P(A∩B).
P(B/A)=54⇒P(A)P(A∩B)=54
Hence
P(A)=45P(A∩B).
- Substitute the expression for P(A∩B) from step 1 into step 2.
P(A)=45⋅103P(B)=4015P(B)=83P(B).
So P(A) is 83 of P(B).
- Now write P(A∪B) using the inclusion-exclusion formula.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).
Substitute the expressions we have:
P(A∪B)=83P(B)+P(B)−103P(B).
- Combine the terms over a common denominator. …
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-FN1 markMCQQ.Three persons A, B, C planned to have a running race among themselves. If the probability that A wins the race is thrice that of B and the probability that B wins the race is 23 times that of C, then the difference in probabilities of A and C to win the race is (A) 32 (B) 21 (C) 145 (D) 73
›Reveal solutionSolution
With P(A)=149, P(C)=142, the difference is P(A)−P(C)=21.
Let P(C)=p. Then P(B)=23p and P(A)=3P(B)=29p.
The three probabilities sum to 1 (one of them must win):
29p+23p+p=7p=1 ⇒ p=71.
Hence
P(A)=29⋅71=149,P(C)=71=142. …
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-18-AN1 markMCQQ.The variance of a Poisson variate X is 2. Then P(X≥3)= (A) e2e2−7 (B) e2e2−3 (C) e2e2−5 (D) 1−e24
›Reveal solutionSolution
For a Poisson distribution, variance equals mean (λ). Given variance =2, we have λ=2. Then P(X≥3)=1−P(X≤2)=1−e−2(1+2+2)=e2e2−5, which matches option (C).
The Poisson distribution is defined by a single parameter λ, which is both its mean and its variance. That’s the key property here — once you know the variance, you know λ directly. The question then becomes a straightforward probability sum.
The probability mass function of a Poisson variate X with parameter λ is:
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk,k=0,1,2,…
We are told Var(X)=2. For Poisson, Var(X)=λ, so λ=2.
We need P(X≥3). It’s often easier to compute the complement: P(X≥3)=1−P(X≤2).
- Compute P(X=0)
P(X=0)=0!e−2⋅20=e−2
- Compute P(X=1)
P(X=1)=1!e−2⋅21=2e−2
- Compute P(X=2) P(X=2)=2!e−2⋅22=24e−2=2e−2 …
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-04-AN1 markMCQQ.In a Poisson distribution, if P(X=2)P(X=5)=75001 and P(X=3)P(X=5)=5001, then the mean of the distribution is (A) 151 (B) 51 (C) 251 (D) 31
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the ratio formulas for Poisson probabilities to eliminate the common factor and solve for the mean λ. The mean is found to be 1/5, so option (B) is correct.
The Poisson distribution has probability mass function
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk,k=0,1,2,…
where λ>0 is the mean. When we take ratios of probabilities, the factor e−λ cancels, leaving only powers of λ and factorials. This makes ratios a clean way to solve for λ without needing the actual probabilities.
- Write the given ratios in terms of λ.
P(X=2)P(X=5)=2!e−λλ25!e−λλ5=λ2/2λ5/120=60λ3
The problem states this equals 75001. So:
60λ3=75001
- Solve for λ3 from the first ratio. Multiply both sides by 60:
λ3=750060=1251
Hence λ=31251=51.
- Check consistency with the second ratio.
P(X=3)P(X=5)=λ3/6λ5/120=20λ2
Plug λ=1/5: …
🎓Unlock everything free for 14 days
- ✓Full step-by-step solutions
- ✓Concept-first explanations
- ✓Methods, shortcuts & mistakes
- ✓PYQ mapping + timed mock tests
Full access for 14 days. No credit card required.