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NCERT Exemplar · Q24

Q.A letter is known to have come either from TATA NAGAR or from CALCUTTA. On the envelope, just two consecutive letters TA are visible. What is the probability that the letter came from TATA NAGAR.

Telangana TsbieLong· 5mImportance★★★★★
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Counting how often the pair "TA" occurs among all consecutive letter-pairs of each name and applying Bayes' theorem gives P(TATA NAGAR∣TA)=711P(\text{TATA NAGAR}\mid \text{TA})=\dfrac{7}{11}.

Let E1E_1 = "from TATA NAGAR" and E2E_2 = "from CALCUTTA," with equal priors P(E1)=P(E2)=12P(E_1)=P(E_2)=\dfrac{1}{2}. Let AA = "the two visible consecutive letters are TA." The chance of seeing TA in a name equals (number of TA pairs) / (number of consecutive pairs).

1. TATA NAGAR (letters T A T A N A G A RT\,A\,T\,A\,N\,A\,G\,A\,R, 99 letters ⇒8\Rightarrow 8 consecutive pairs):

TA, AT, TA, AN, NA, AG, GA, AR.TA,\ AT,\ TA,\ AN,\ NA,\ AG,\ GA,\ AR.

"TA" occurs twice, so P(A∣E1)=28=14.P(A\mid E_1)=\dfrac{2}{8}=\dfrac{1}{4}.

2. CALCUTTA (letters C A L C U T T AC\,A\,L\,C\,U\,T\,T\,A, 88 letters ⇒7\Rightarrow 7 consecutive pairs):

CA, AL, LC, CU, UT, TT, TA.CA,\ AL,\ LC,\ CU,\ UT,\ TT,\ TA.

"TA" occurs once, so P(A∣E2)=17.P(A\mid E_2)=\dfrac{1}{7}.

3. Bayes' theorem. …

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