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NCERT Exemplar · Q4

Q.A bag contains 55 red marbles and 33 black marbles. Three marbles are drawn one by one without replacement. What is the probability that at least one of the three marbles drawn be black, if the first marble is red?

Telangana TsbieShort· 3mImportance★★★★★
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Given the first marble is red, the bag holds 44 red and 33 black. The chance the next two are both red is 47⋅36=27\tfrac{4}{7}\cdot\tfrac{3}{6}=\tfrac{2}{7}, so the probability of at least one black is 1−27=571-\tfrac{2}{7}=\dfrac{5}{7}.

Since the first marble drawn is red, the remaining bag contains

5−1=4 red,3 black,total 7,5-1=4\ \text{red},\qquad 3\ \text{black},\qquad \text{total }7,

and two more marbles are drawn without replacement. "At least one of the three is black" is now the same as "at least one of the next two is black," so use the complement.

1. Both of the next two are red (no black).

  • Second marble red: 47\dfrac{4}{7}.
  • Then 33 red remain out of 66, so third marble red: 36=12\dfrac{3}{6}=\dfrac{1}{2}.

P(both red)=47×12=27.P(\text{both red})=\frac{4}{7}\times\frac{1}{2}=\frac{2}{7}.

2. At least one black. …

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