Q.A bag contains 5 red marbles and 3 black marbles. Three marbles are drawn one by one without replacement. What is the probability that at least one of the three marbles drawn be black, if the first marble is red?
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🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
Concept: Conditional Probability — we are finding the probability of an event given that a specific condition (first marble is red) has already occurred.
Since the first marble is red, the remaining bag contains 4 red and 3 black marbles (total 7). We now draw two more marbles without replacement.
Step 1: It is easier to find the complement — the probability that none of the next two marbles is black (i.e., both are red).
Step 2: Probability that the second marble is red (given first was red) is 74. After that, probability that the third marble is also red is 63=21. …
Given the first marble is red, the bag holds 4 red and 3 black. The chance the next two are both red is 74⋅63=72, so the probability of at least one black is 1−72=75.
Since the first marble drawn is red, the remaining bag contains
5−1=4 red,3 black,total 7,
and two more marbles are drawn without replacement. "At least one of the three is black" is now the same as "at least one of the next two is black," so use the complement.
1. Both of the next two are red (no black).
- Second marble red: 74.
- Then 3 red remain out of 6, so third marble red: 63=21.
P(both red)=74×21=72.
2. At least one black. …
Method: Conditional Probability with an Updated Sample Space and the "At Least One" Complement
Use this for without-replacement draws where a condition is already known and you want "at least one" of a colour.
Steps
Step 1: Update the composition using the given condition.
Once the first draw is known (e.g. a red is removed), recompute how many of each item remain. All later probabilities are taken from this reduced pool.
Step 2: Recognise "at least one" and complement it.
Directly summing "one, two, …" is long; the complement of "at least one black" is "no black at all" (every remaining draw is red): …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Not updating the bag after the first red is drawn.
Why it's wrong: given the first marble is red, only 4 red and 3 black remain; using the original 5 red overstates the reds. Correct approach: compute later draws from the 4-red, 3-black pool.
Mistake 2: Adding probabilities for "at least one black" case by case over three draws. …
Showing the 12 most recent of 30 on this concept.
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-18-FN1 markMCQQ.Two balls are drawn at random from a bag containing 5 black balls and 3 white balls. If the random variable X denotes the number of white balls drawn, then the mean of X is (A) 21 (B) 85 (C) 43 (D) 83
›Reveal solutionSolution
The mean (expected value) of the number of white balls drawn when picking two balls without replacement from 5 black and 3 white balls is 43. The correct option is (C).
We are drawing two balls without replacement from a small finite set. The random variable X counts how many white balls appear. The mean (expected value) is just the average number of whites we’d see if we repeated the draw many times.
Key insight: Instead of listing all outcomes and probabilities, we can use the linearity of expectation. Each ball drawn is like a “mini-experiment”: define an indicator for whether the first ball is white, and another for the second. The expected number of whites is simply the sum of the probabilities that each individual draw yields a white ball. This works even though the draws are dependent — expectation adds regardless.
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Define indicator variables
Let I1=1 if the first ball is white, 0 otherwise.
Let I2=1 if the second ball is white, 0 otherwise.
Then X=I1+I2.
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Find the probability the first ball is white
Initially there are 3 white balls out of 8 total.
P(I1=1)=83.
- Find the probability the second ball is white By symmetry (or by the law of total probability), the chance the second ball is white is also 83. Why? Because without any information about the first draw, the second ball is equally likely to be any of the 8 original balls. So P(I2=1)=83. …
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- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.A, B1, B2, B3 are the events in a random experiment. If P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45, P(B1A)=0.05, P(B2A)=0.04, P(B3A)=0.03, then P(AB2)= (A) 196 (B) 198 (C) 1912 (D) 195
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a classic Bayes’ theorem problem: we are given prior probabilities for three mutually exclusive events and the conditional probabilities of A given each, and we need the posterior probability of B2 given A. The answer is 196, which corresponds to option (A).
We start with the concept: Bayes’ theorem lets us “reverse” conditional probabilities. Here, we know P(A∣Bi) and want P(B2∣A). The key is that the Bi form a partition of the sample space (they are the only possible “causes” of A), so we can compute P(A) using the law of total probability, then apply Bayes’ formula.
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Identify the given data
- P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45
- P(A∣B1)=0.05, P(A∣B2)=0.04, P(A∣B3)=0.03 The events B1,B2,B3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (their probabilities sum to 1), so they form a partition.
-
Compute the total probability of A
By the law of total probability:
P(A)=P(B1)P(A∣B1)+P(B2)P(A∣B2)+P(B3)P(A∣B3)
Substitute:
P(A)=(0.25)(0.05)+(0.30)(0.04)+(0.45)(0.03)
Calculate each term:
- 0.25×0.05=0.0125
- 0.30×0.04=0.0120
- 0.45×0.03=0.0135 Sum:
P(A)=0.0125+0.0120+0.0135=0.0380
- Apply Bayes’ theorem for P(B2∣A) Bayes’ theorem states:
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- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-11-FN1 markMCQQ.The numbers 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13 are written on six distinct paper chits. If 3 of them are chosen at random, then the probability that the sum of the numbers on the obtained chits is divisible by 3, is (A) 207 (B) 206 (C) 205 (D) 51
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to classify each number by its remainder modulo 3, then count only those 3‑card combinations whose remainders sum to a multiple of 3. The probability is 207, which corresponds to option (A).
We have six numbers: 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13.
We pick 3 at random. The total number of ways is (36)=20.
We want the probability that the sum of the three chosen numbers is divisible by 3.
Why classify by remainder?
A number’s remainder modulo 3 determines whether it contributes 0, 1, or 2 to the total sum mod 3. The sum of three numbers is divisible by 3 exactly when the sum of their remainders is 0 mod 3. This turns a problem about specific numbers into a simple counting problem about remainder classes.
Step-by-step
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Find each number’s remainder mod 3
- 2≡2
- 3≡0
- 5≡2
- 7≡1
- 11≡2
- 13≡1
So we have:
- Remainder 0: {3} → 1 number
- Remainder 1: {7, 13} → 2 numbers
- Remainder 2: {2, 5, 11} → 3 numbers
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Which remainder combinations sum to 0 mod 3?
Let (r1, r2, r3) be the remainders of the three chosen numbers. We need r1+r2+r3≡0(mod3).
The possible triples (order doesn’t matter) are:
- (0,0,0) — all three have remainder 0
- (1,1,1) — all three have remainder 1
- (2,2,2) — all three have remainder 2
- (0,1,2) — one of each remainder
No other triple works (e.g., (0,0,1) sums to 1, etc.).
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Count the number of 3‑card combinations for each case
- (0,0,0): Only 1 number with remainder 0, so impossible. Count = 0. …
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- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If P(A)=83, P(A∣B)=P(B∣A)=53, then P(A∩B)+P(B)= (A) 4021 (B) 132 (C) 143 (D) 125
›Reveal solutionSolution
We use the given conditional probabilities to set up equations for P(A∩B) and P(B), then solve and sum them. The result is 4021, which corresponds to option (A).
We are told:
- P(A)=83
- P(A∣B)=53
- P(B∣A)=53
We need P(A∩B)+P(B).
Concept and intuition
Conditional probabilities like P(A∣B) relate the probability of the complement of A given B to the joint probability P(A∩B). Since P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B), we can write an equation linking P(B) and P(A∩B). Similarly, P(B∣A) gives a relation between P(A) and P(A∩B). This lets us solve for the unknowns.
Step-by-step solution
- Use P(B∣A) to find P(A∩B) By definition:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(B∩A)=53
Since P(B∩A)=P(A)−P(A∩B), we have:
P(A)P(A)−P(A∩B)=53
Substitute P(A)=83:
8383−P(A∩B)=53
Multiply both sides by 83:
83−P(A∩B)=53⋅83=409
So:
P(A∩B)=83−409=4015−409=406=203
- Use P(A∣B) to find P(B) By definition:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=53
Now P(A∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B). Substitute P(A∩B)=203:
P(B)P(B)−203=53
Multiply both sides by P(B): …
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-AN1 markMCQQ.A card is drawn randomly from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If A is the event of getting a diamond card and B is the event of getting an ace card, then the probability that exactly one of the events among A and B to occur is (A) 5215 (B) 134 (C) 5217 (D) 135
›Reveal solutionSolution
The probability that exactly one of the events A (diamond) or B (ace) occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities minus twice the probability of both occurring. The result is 5215, which corresponds to option (A).
We want the probability that exactly one of the two events happens — that is, either we draw a diamond that is not an ace, or we draw an ace that is not a diamond. This is a classic "exclusive or" (XOR) situation.
Why this approach works:
If we simply add P(A)+P(B), we count the case where both occur (the ace of diamonds) twice. To get exactly one, we subtract that double-counted overlap once more than usual — hence P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B).
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Identify the probabilities of each event individually.
- There are 13 diamonds in a deck of 52, so P(A)=5213=41.
- There are 4 aces, so P(B)=524=131.
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Find the probability that both events occur (the intersection).
- Only one card is both a diamond and an ace: the ace of diamonds.
- So P(A∩B)=521.
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Apply the formula for exactly one event.
- Exactly one of A or B occurs means: (A and not B) or (B and not A).
- The probability is:
P(exactly one)=P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B)
- Substitute the values:
5213+524−2⋅521=5213+4−2=5215
- Check against the options. …
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- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-FN1 markMCQQ.Three persons A, B, C planned to have a running race among themselves. If the probability that A wins the race is thrice that of B and the probability that B wins the race is 23 times that of C, then the difference in probabilities of A and C to win the race is (A) 32 (B) 21 (C) 145 (D) 73
›Reveal solutionSolution
With P(A)=149, P(C)=142, the difference is P(A)−P(C)=21.
Let P(C)=p. Then P(B)=23p and P(A)=3P(B)=29p.
The three probabilities sum to 1 (one of them must win):
29p+23p+p=7p=1 ⇒ p=71.
Hence
P(A)=29⋅71=149,P(C)=71=142. …
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.Let P=147258369 be a matrix. Three elements of this matrix P are selected at random. A is the event of having the three elements whose sum is odd. B is the event of selecting the three elements which are in a row or column. Then P(A)+P(BA)= (A) 420221 (B) 2117 (C) 2021 (D) 23
›Reveal solutionSolution
We compute the probability that three randomly chosen entries sum to an odd number, then the conditional probability of that event given they lie in a single row or column, and add them. The result simplifies to 2117, which is option (B).
Concept & Intuition
The matrix has 9 entries. We pick 3 of them uniformly at random.
- For event A (odd sum), we need to count how many triples have an odd total. Since odd/even depends only on parity, we first classify the 9 numbers by parity: 1,3,5,7,9 are odd (5 odds); 2,4,6,8 are even (4 evens). The sum of three numbers is odd iff we have an odd number of odd entries among them — i.e., 1 or 3 odds.
- For event B (all in one row or one column), we count triples that lie entirely in a single row (3 rows, each row has 3 entries → 1 triple per row) or entirely in a single column (3 columns, each column has 3 entries → 1 triple per column). That gives 3+3=6 triples.
- Then P(A/B) is the fraction of those 6 triples that also have an odd sum.
We compute both probabilities and add them.
Step-by-step
- Total number of ways to choose 3 entries from 9
(39)=84.
- Count triples with odd sum (event A)
- Case 1: exactly 1 odd, 2 evens Choose 1 odd from 5 odds: (15)=5 Choose 2 evens from 4 evens: (24)=6 Total: 5×6=30 triples.
- Case 2: exactly 3 odds, 0 evens Choose 3 odds from 5 odds: (35)=10 Total: 10 triples.
- So ∣A∣=30+10=40. Hence
P(A)=8440=2110.
- Count triples in a row or column (event B)
- Rows: 3 rows, each row has exactly 1 triple (all three entries). So 3 triples.
- Columns: 3 columns, each column has exactly 1 triple. So 3 triples.
- Total: ∣B∣=6. Hence
P(B)=846=141.
- Count triples that are both in a row/column AND have odd sum (event A∩B) Check each row and column for odd sum: …
- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If the probability that a student selected at random from a particular college is good at mathematics is 0.6, then the probability of having two students who are good at mathematics in a group of 8 students of that college standing in front of the college is (A) 5826×32×7 (B) 5626×32×7 (C) 5628×32×7 (D) 5828×32×7
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a binomial trial with n=8, p=0.6. P(X=2)=(28)(0.6)2(0.4)6=5828×32×7, option (D).
Binomial model
Each student is independently good at mathematics with probability p=0.6=53, so q=0.4=52. For n=8 students, the number good at mathematics is binomial, and we want exactly two:
P(X=2)=(28)p2q6=(28)(53)2(52)6.
Simplify
(28)=28,(53)2=5232,(52)6=5626. …
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-18-FN1 markMCQQ.A pair of dice is thrown twice in succession. The probability of getting prime numbers on both the dice in first throw and composite numbers on both the dice in second throw is (A) 2161 (B) 161 (C) 361 (D) 91
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to treat the two throws as independent events, multiply their probabilities, and note that each die has 3 prime numbers (2,3,5) and 2 composite numbers (4,6) — 1 is neither. The final probability is 161.
We start by recalling what “prime” and “composite” mean for the numbers 1 through 6 on a standard die.
- Prime numbers on a die: 2, 3, 5 (three numbers).
- Composite numbers on a die: 4, 6 (two numbers).
- Neither: 1 (not prime, not composite).
The problem asks: first throw — both dice show primes; second throw — both dice show composites. The two throws are independent, so we multiply probabilities.
- Probability of both dice showing primes in the first throw For one die, P(prime)=63=21. Since the two dice are independent,
P(both prime)=21×21=41.
- Probability of both dice showing composites in the second throw For one die, P(composite)=62=31. So,
P(both composite)=31×31=91.
- Combine the two independent events …
- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-11-FN1 markMCQQ.If 4 letters are selected at random from the letters of the word PROBABILITY, then the probability of getting a combination of letters in which atleast one letter is repeated is (A) 17043 (B) 6119 (C) 18457 (D) 15529
›Reveal solutionSolution
The multiset PROBABILITY has 9 distinct letters (with B and I each twice). Total 4-letter selections =183; those with a repeat =57, so the probability is 18357=6119, option (B).
Letters of PROBABILITY: P,R,O,B,A,B,I,L,I,T,Y — 11 letters, 9 distinct types, with B and I appearing twice each.
Step 1 — Total number of 4-letter selections (order does not matter).
Count by repetition pattern:
- All four distinct: (49)=126.
- Exactly one repeated pair (B or I) plus two other distinct letters: 2×(28)=2×28=56.
- Two repeated pairs, i.e. {B,B,I,I}: 1 way. …
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-20-AN1 markMCQQ.If X is a Poisson variate such that 35k=P(X=2)=P(X=3), then P(X=5)= (A) k (B) 41k (C) 21k (D) 43k
›Reveal solutionSolution
We use the Poisson Probability Mass Function to equate P(X=2) and P(X=3), which allows us to determine the parameter λ. Once λ is known, we can express P(X=5) in terms of k. The result is P(X=5)=43k.
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, given a constant average rate of occurrence and independence of events. It is characterized by a single parameter, λ (lambda), which represents the average number of events in the given interval.
The core idea here is to use the given equality of probabilities, P(X=2)=P(X=3), to find the value of this parameter λ. Once λ is known, we can calculate any other probability P(X=x) using the Poisson Probability Mass Function (PMF). We are also given a relationship involving k, which we will use to express our final answer in terms of k.
-
Recall the Poisson Probability Mass Function (PMF):
For a Poisson variate X with parameter λ, the probability of observing exactly x events is given by:
P(X=x)=x!e−λλx
where x=0,1,2,… and λ>0.
-
Use the given condition P(X=2)=P(X=3) to find λ:
Substitute x=2 and x=3 into the PMF:
P(X=2)=2!e−λλ2
P(X=3)=3!e−λλ3
Equating these two probabilities:
2!e−λλ2=3!e−λλ3
Since e−λ is never zero and λ must be positive (as probabilities are non-zero), we can divide both sides by e−λλ2:
2!1=3!λ
Recall that 2!=2×1=2 and 3!=3×2×1=6.
21=6λ
Multiply both sides by 6 to solve for λ:
λ=26=3
So, the parameter of the Poisson distribution is λ=3.
-
Express k in terms of λ (and e−λ):
We are given that 35k=P(X=2).
We know P(X=2)=2!e−λλ2. Substitute λ=3:
P(X=2)=2e−332=29e−3
Now, equate this to 35k:
35k=29e−3
Solve for k:
k=53×29e−3=1027e−3
-
Calculate P(X=5) using λ=3: …
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- TG EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-12-FN1 markMCQQ.Two numbers b and c are chosen at random in succession without replacement from the set {1,2,3,…,9}. Then the probability that x2+bx+c>0, ∀x∈R is (A) 7229 (B) 8132 (C) 14345 (D) 12582
›Reveal solutionSolution
The condition x2+bx+c>0 for all real x is equivalent to the discriminant b2−4c<0. Counting ordered pairs (b,c) from {1,…,9} without replacement that satisfy b2<4c gives 29 favorable outcomes out of 72 total, so the probability is 7229, which is option (A).
Why this approach works
A quadratic x2+bx+c that is always positive (for every real x) must have no real roots and open upward. Since the coefficient of x2 is 1>0, the condition reduces to the discriminant being negative: b2−4c<0, i.e. b2<4c.
We are choosing b and c without replacement from {1,…,9}, so each ordered pair (b,c) with b=c is equally likely. The total number of such ordered pairs is 9×8=72. We just need to count how many of them satisfy b2<4c.
Step-by-step counting
1. Understand the inequality
We need b2<4c. Since c is an integer from 1 to 9, rewrite as c>4b2. For each b, we count the number of c values (different from b) that are strictly greater than b2/4.
2. Compute for each b
- b=1: b2/4=0.25, so c>0.25 means c≥1. All c from 1 to 9 except c=1 (since b=c) work. That gives 8 choices.
- b=2: b2/4=1, so c>1 means c≥2. Excluding c=2 leaves {3,4,5,6,7,8,9} → 7 choices.
- b=3: b2/4=2.25, so c>2.25 means c≥3. Excluding c=3 leaves {4,5,6,7,8,9} → 6 choices.
- b=4: b2/4=4, so c>4 means c≥5. Excluding c=4 (which isn't in this set anyway) gives {5,6,7,8,9} → 5 choices.
- b=5: b2/4=6.25, so c>6.25 means c≥7. Excluding c=5 (not in set) gives {7,8,9} → 3 choices.
- b=6: b2/4=9, so c>9 means c≥10, but max c is 9. No c works → 0 choices. …
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