Q.There are three urns containing $2$ white and $3$ black balls, $3$ white and $2$ black balls, and $4$ white and $1$ black balls, respectively. There is an equal probability of each urn being chosen. A ball is drawn at random from the chosen urn and it is found to be white. Find the probability that the ball drawn was from the second urn.

Showing the 12 most recent of 69 on this concept.

1. AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-13-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.Bag A contains 3 white and 4 black balls. Bag B contains 4 white and 3 black balls. Bag C contains 2 white and 5 black balls. A bag is randomly selected and then a ball is randomly drawn from that bag. If the ball drawn was found to be white, then the probability that the ball is drawn from bag C is (A) $\dfrac{1}{6}$ (B) $\dfrac{2}{9}$ (C) $\dfrac{1}{4}$ (D) $\dfrac{2}{13}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   This is a direct Bayes'-theorem (inverse probability) question. Answer: $\dfrac{2}{9}$.

   Concept and Intuition

   We're given the outcome (a white ball was drawn) and asked for the probability of a particular cause (it came from bag C). This is exactly Bayes' theorem: $P(C\mid W) = \dfrac{P(C)P(W\mid C)}{\sum_i P(\text{bag}_i)P(W\mid \text{bag}_i)}$.

   Step-by-Step Solution

   1. Each bag is chosen with probability $\frac13$.
   2. $P(W\mid A) = \dfrac{3}{7}$ (3 white out of 7 total in bag A).
   3. $P(W\mid B) = \dfrac{4}{7}$ (4 white out of 7 in bag B).
   4. $P(W\mid C) = \dfrac{2}{7}$ (2 white out of 7 in bag C).
   5. Total probability of white: $P(W) = \frac13\left(\dfrac37+\dfrac47+\dfrac27\right) = \frac13\cdot\dfrac{9}{7} = \dfrac{9}{21} = \dfrac{3}{7}$. …

   🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
2. AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-15-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.Bag $B_1$ contains 4 white and 2 black balls. Bag $B_2$ contains 3 white and 4 black balls. A bag is chosen at random and a ball is drawn from it at random, then the probability that the ball drawn is white, is (A) $\dfrac{1}{42}$ (B) $\dfrac{42}{32}$ (C) $\dfrac{33}{42}$ (D) $\dfrac{23}{42}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   Total-probability rule over the two equally likely bags gives $P(\text{white})=\frac12\cdot\frac46+\frac12\cdot\frac37=\frac{23}{42}$.

   Concept and Intuition

   The ball drawn depends on which bag was chosen first. Since the bag choice is random with $P(B_1)=P(B_2)=\frac12$, and the draw is conditionally independent given the bag, the Law of Total Probability adds the two conditional probabilities weighted by how likely each bag is.

   Step-by-Step Solution

   1. $B_1$: 4 white, 2 black out of 6 $\Rightarrow P(\text{white}\mid B_1)=\frac{4}{6}=\frac23$.
   2. $B_2$: 3 white, 4 black out of 7 $\Rightarrow P(\text{white}\mid B_2)=\frac37$.
   3. $P(\text{white})=\frac12\cdot\frac23+\frac12\cdot\frac37=\frac13+\frac{3}{14}$. …

   🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
3. AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-22-AN1 markMCQ
   Q.An urn A contains 4 white and 1 black ball; urn B contains 3 white and 2 black balls and urn C contains 2 white and 3 black balls. One ball is transferred randomly from A to B; later one ball is transferred randomly from B to C. Finally, if a ball is drawn randomly from C, then the probability that it is a black ball is (A) $\dfrac{7}{12}$ (B) $\dfrac{89}{180}$ (C) $\dfrac{101}{180}$ (D) $\dfrac{17}{36}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   A two-stage transfer-then-draw problem, solved by branching over all four possible transfer outcomes: probability of black $=\dfrac{101}{180}$.

   Concept and Intuition

   This is a sequential conditional-probability problem: each transfer changes the composition of the receiving urn, so we must branch over every possible outcome of each transfer and weight the final draw accordingly (total probability theorem, applied twice).

   Step-by-Step Solution

   1. Urn A: 4W,1B. Transfer to B: $P(\text{W})=\frac45$, $P(\text{B})=\frac15$.
   2. If white moved to B: B becomes 4W,2B (6 balls). If black moved to B: B becomes 3W,3B (6 balls).
   3. From B (4W,2B): transfer white to C with $P=\frac{4}{6}=\frac23$ (C becomes 3W,3B), or black with $P=\frac26=\frac13$ (C becomes 2W,4B).
   4. From B (3W,3B): transfer white to C with $P=\frac12$ (C becomes 3W,3B), or black with $P=\frac12$ (C becomes 2W,4B).
   5. Final draw from C: $P(\text{black}\mid 3W3B)=\frac12$; $P(\text{black}\mid 2W4B)=\frac{4}{6}=\frac23$.
   6. Combine all four branches:
      • A-white, B-white: $\frac45\cdot\frac23\cdot\frac12=\frac{8}{30}=\frac{4}{15}$
      • A-white, B-black: $\frac45\cdot\frac13\cdot\frac23=\frac{8}{45}$ …

   🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
4. AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-17-AN1 markMCQ
   Q.Three boxes $B_1$, $B_2$ and $B_3$ contain balls with different colors as follows:

   	White	Black	Red
   $B_1$	2	1	2
   $B_2$	3	2	4
   $B_3$	4	3	2

   A die is thrown. Box $B_1$ is chosen if either 1 or 2 turns up. Box $B_2$ is chosen if 3 or 4 turns up and box $B_3$ is chosen if 5 or 6 turns up. Having chosen a box in this way, a ball is drawn at random from that box. If the ball drawn is found to be Red, then the probability that it is drawn from box $B_2$ is (A) $\dfrac{7}{12}$ (B) $\dfrac{5}{12}$ (C) $\dfrac{1}{12}$ (D) $\dfrac{3}{26}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   A Bayes'-theorem problem: reverse the conditional probability "ball is Red, which box?" using the total-probability formula.

   Concept and Intuition

   Bayes' theorem lets us "invert" a conditional probability. We know $P(\text{Red}\mid B_i)$ for each box and the prior $P(B_i)$ (each $1/3$ since the die is fair and each box corresponds to two faces); we want the posterior $P(B_2 \mid \text{Red})$.

   Step-by-Step Solution

   1. Totals in each box: $B_1$: $2+1+2=5$; $B_2$: $3+2+4=9$; $B_3$: $4+3+2=9$.
   2. $P(\text{Red}\mid B_1)=\dfrac{2}{5}$, $P(\text{Red}\mid B_2)=\dfrac{4}{9}$, $P(\text{Red}\mid B_3)=\dfrac{2}{9}$.
   3. Each box has prior probability $\dfrac13$ (each box corresponds to two die faces out of six).
   4. Total probability: $P(\text{Red}) = \dfrac13\left(\dfrac25+\dfrac49+\dfrac29\right) = \dfrac13\left(\dfrac25+\dfrac23\right) = \dfrac13\cdot\dfrac{16}{15}=\dfrac{16}{45}$. …

   🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
5. AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-19-AN1 markMCQ
   Q.There are 2 bags each containing 3 white and 5 black balls and 4 bags each containing 6 white and 4 black balls. If a ball drawn randomly from a bag is found to be black, then the probability that this ball is from the first set of bags is (A) $\dfrac{25}{57}$ (B) $\dfrac{25}{41}$ (C) $\dfrac{2}{5}$ (D) $\dfrac{3}{5}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   A classic Bayes'-theorem (inverse-probability) question: given the ball drawn is black, find the probability it came from the first group of bags. Answer: $\dfrac{25}{57}$.

   Concept and Intuition

   When an experiment happens in two stages — first a bag is picked (from one of two groups of bags), then a ball is drawn from it — and we're told the result of the second stage (a black ball came out), Bayes' theorem lets us reverse the direction of reasoning and find the probability about the first stage (which group the bag was from). The prior probability of picking from a group is proportional to how many bags are in that group (each individual bag is equally likely to be picked), and then we weight by how likely that group is to produce the observed outcome.

   Step-by-Step Solution

   1. Groups and priors. Group 1 (call it $S_1$) has 2 bags (each 3 white, 5 black — 8 balls). Group 2 ($S_2$) has 4 bags (each 6 white, 4 black — 10 balls). Total bags $=6$, each equally likely to be chosen, so

   $P(S_1)=\frac{2}{6}=\frac13,\qquad P(S_2)=\frac{4}{6}=\frac23.$

   2. Likelihoods of drawing black. From a group-1 bag: $P(B\mid S_1)=\dfrac{5}{8}$. From a group-2 bag: $P(B\mid S_2)=\dfrac{4}{10}=\dfrac25$.
   3. Total probability of drawing a black ball (law of total probability): $P(B) = P(S_1)P(B\mid S_1)+P(S_2)P(B\mid S_2) = \frac13\cdot\frac58+\frac23\cdot\frac25 = \frac{5}{24}+\frac{4}{15}.$ …

   🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
6. AP EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-05-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.A bag contains 4 red and 3 black balls. A second bag contains 2 red and 3 black balls. One bag is selected at random. If from the selected bag, one ball is drawn at random, then the probability that the ball drawn is red is (A) $\frac{39}{70}$ (B) $\frac{41}{70}$ (C) $\frac{29}{70}$ (D) $\frac{17}{35}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   Total probability theorem over the two equally-likely bags gives $\frac{17}{35}$.

   Concept and Intuition

   Since the bag is chosen at random (each with probability $\frac12$), the overall probability of drawing red is the weighted average of the conditional probabilities of drawing red from each bag.

   Step-by-Step Solution

   1. Bag 1: 4 red, 3 black (7 total) → $P(\text{red}|\text{Bag1})=\dfrac{4}{7}$.
   2. Bag 2: 2 red, 3 black (5 total) → $P(\text{red}|\text{Bag2})=\dfrac{2}{5}$.
   3. $P(\text{red}) = \dfrac12\cdot\dfrac47+\dfrac12\cdot\dfrac25 = \dfrac{4}{14}+\dfrac{2}{10}=\dfrac{2}{7}+\dfrac15$. …

   🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
7. AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-23-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.Two urns identical in appearance contain respectively 3 green and 2 black balls and 2 green and 5 black balls. One urn is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. The probability that it is black is ________ (A) $\dfrac{39}{70}$ (B) $\dfrac{37}{70}$ (C) $\dfrac{41}{70}$ (D) $\dfrac{33}{70}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   Apply the law of total probability over the two equally-likely urns to get $P(\text{black}) = \dfrac{39}{70}$.

   Concept and Intuition

   When an experiment first randomly selects between two scenarios (here, two urns, each equally likely) and then performs a further random step (drawing a ball), the overall probability of an outcome is the weighted average of the outcome's probability under each scenario, weighted by the scenario's own probability.

   Step-by-Step Solution

   1. Urn 1 has $3$ green $+ 2$ black $=5$ balls, so $P(\text{black}\mid\text{Urn 1}) = \dfrac{2}{5}$.
   2. Urn 2 has $2$ green $+ 5$ black $=7$ balls, so $P(\text{black}\mid\text{Urn 2}) = \dfrac{5}{7}$.
   3. Each urn is chosen with probability $\dfrac12$. …

   🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
8. AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-22-AN1 markMCQ
   Q.There are three families $F_1, F_2, F_3$. $F_1$ has 2 boys and 1 girl; $F_2$ has 1 boy and 2 girls; $F_3$ has 1 boy and 1 girl. A family is randomly chosen and a child is chosen from that family randomly. If it is known that the child thus selected is a girl, then the probability that she is from $F_2$ is (A) $\dfrac{4}{9}$ (B) $\dfrac{2}{9}$ (C) $\dfrac{3}{7}$ (D) $\dfrac{5}{7}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   Applying Bayes' theorem across the three equally-likely families gives $P(F_2\mid\text{girl})=\dfrac49$.

   Concept and Intuition

   This is a textbook application of Bayes' theorem: we're given the reverse conditional probabilities (family $\to$ probability of picking a girl) and asked for the forward one (girl picked $\to$ probability she's from a specific family).

   Step-by-Step Solution

   1. Prior: $P(F_1)=P(F_2)=P(F_3)=\dfrac13$.
   2. $P(\text{girl}\mid F_1)=\dfrac13$ (1 girl out of 3 children), $P(\text{girl}\mid F_2)=\dfrac23$, $P(\text{girl}\mid F_3)=\dfrac12$.
   3. Total probability: $P(\text{girl})=\frac13\cdot\frac13+\frac13\cdot\frac23+\frac13\cdot\frac12=\frac13\left(\frac13+\frac23+\frac12\right)=\frac13\cdot\frac{2+4+3}{6}=\frac13\cdot\frac96=\frac12$
   4. $P(F_2\cap\text{girl})=\dfrac13\cdot\dfrac23=\dfrac29$. …

   🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
9. AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-23-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.Bag A contains 2 white and 3 red balls and bag B contains 4 white and 5 red balls. If one ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and is found to be red, then the probability that it was drawn from the bag B is (A) $\dfrac{23}{54}$ (B) $\dfrac{25}{51}$ (C) $\dfrac{25}{52}$ (D) $\dfrac{27}{55}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   A classic Bayes'-theorem problem: given the ball drawn is red, the probability it came from bag B is $\dfrac{25}{52}$.

   Concept and Intuition

   This is Bayes' theorem: we're given the outcome (red ball drawn) and want to find the probability of which "cause" (bag A or B) produced it, using the prior probability of choosing each bag (each $\frac12$) and each bag's own probability of yielding red.

   Step-by-Step Solution

   1. Bag A: 2 white, 3 red (5 total) $\Rightarrow P(\text{red}|A)=\dfrac35$.
   2. Bag B: 4 white, 5 red (9 total) $\Rightarrow P(\text{red}|B)=\dfrac59$.
   3. $P(A)=P(B)=\dfrac12$ (bag chosen at random).
   4. Total probability of red: $P(\text{red})=P(A)P(\text{red}|A)+P(B)P(\text{red}|B)=\dfrac12\cdot\dfrac35+\dfrac12\cdot\dfrac59=\dfrac3{10}+\dfrac5{18}$.
   5. Common denominator 90: $\dfrac3{10}=\dfrac{27}{90}$, $\dfrac5{18}=\dfrac{25}{90}$, sum $=\dfrac{52}{90}=\dfrac{26}{45}$.
   6. Bayes: $P(B|\text{red})=\dfrac{P(B)P(\text{red}|B)}{P(\text{red})}=\dfrac{(1/2)(5/9)}{26/45}=\dfrac{5/18}{26/45}$. …

   🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
10. AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-18-FN1 markMCQ
    Q.A box P contains 3 white and 7 red balls. A bag Q contains 4 green and 5 blue balls. Two balls are randomly drawn from box P. If both are of same color, one ball is drawn from bag Q and if the two balls are of different color, 2 balls are drawn from the bag Q. If it is known that there is exactly one green ball among the ball or balls drawn from bag Q, then the probability that the two balls drawn from box P are of different colors is (A) $\dfrac{35}{67}$ (B) $\dfrac{21}{62}$ (C) $\dfrac{20}{43}$ (D) $\dfrac{32}{67}$

    ›Reveal solutionSolution

    A two-stage Bayes' theorem problem; conditioning on "exactly one green ball from Q" gives $P(\text{different colors from P}) = \frac{35}{67}$.

    Concept and Intuition

    This is a compound experiment: the outcome in box P (same-color vs different-color) determines how many balls are drawn from bag Q, and hence changes the probability model for "exactly one green." We must compute, for each P-outcome, the probability of observing exactly one green from Q, then combine via Bayes' theorem using the P-outcome's prior probability.

    Step-by-Step Solution

    1. Box P has 3 white + 7 red = 10 balls. $P(\text{same color}) = \dfrac{{}^3C_2+{}^7C_2}{{}^{10}C_2} = \dfrac{3+21}{45}=\dfrac{24}{45}=\dfrac{8}{15}$. $P(\text{different colors}) = 1-\dfrac{8}{15}=\dfrac{7}{15}$ (check: $\dfrac{{}^3C_1{}^7C_1}{{}^{10}C_2}=\dfrac{21}{45}=\dfrac{7}{15}$ ✓).
    2. If same color (S): draw 1 ball from Q (4 green, 5 blue, 9 total). "Exactly one green" among 1 ball drawn just means that ball is green: $P(\text{1 green}\mid S)=\dfrac{4}{9}$.
    3. If different colors (D): draw 2 balls from Q. $P(\text{exactly one green}\mid D) = \dfrac{{}^4C_1\cdot{}^5C_1}{{}^9C_2} = \dfrac{20}{36}=\dfrac{5}{9}$.
    4. By Bayes' theorem: …

    🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
11. AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-15-AN1 markMCQ
    Q.A bag P contains 5 white and 4 blue balls. Another bag Q contains 4 white and 5 blue balls. A bag is randomly selected and a ball is drawn at random. If the ball selected from that bag is transferred to another bag, then the probability that bag Q has same number of blue and white balls is (A) $2/9$ (B) $1/9$ (C) $5/9$ (D) $4/9$

    ›Reveal solutionSolution

    This tests conditional probability with a transfer-between-bags setup; you must track which single transfer restores balance to bag Q, in both directions of transfer. Answer: $5/9$.

    Concept and Intuition

    A ball moves from whichever bag is picked into the other bag. "Bag Q ends up balanced" can happen two structurally different ways: either Q gains a ball (if P was picked) or Q loses a ball (if Q was picked). Each scenario needs the transferred ball to be a specific colour for Q's counts to equalize, so we compute each scenario's probability and add them (mutually exclusive cases, law of total probability).

    Step-by-Step Solution

    1. Bag P: $5W,4B$ (9 total). Bag Q: $4W,5B$ (9 total).
    2. Scenario A (P picked, prob $1/2$): a ball moves P→Q, so Q becomes a 10-ball bag. Q needs to end at $5W,5B$. Since Q started $4W,5B$, the incoming ball must be white. $P(\text{white}\mid P)=5/9$. Probability of this scenario succeeding: $\frac12\times\frac59=\frac{5}{18}$. …

    🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →
12. AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-18-FN1 markMCQ
    Q.Two balls are drawn at random from a box containing 4 white, 6 black balls one after the other without replacement. If it is known that second ball drawn is black, then the probability that the first ball drawn is also black is (A) $\dfrac{5}{11}$ (B) $\dfrac{5}{9}$ (C) $\dfrac{5}{12}$ (D) $\dfrac{5}{13}$

    ›Reveal solutionSolution

    Conditional probability with sampling without replacement, solved with Bayes' theorem; answer is $\frac{5}{9}$.

    Concept and Intuition

    When balls are drawn one after another without replacement, the marginal probability that any particular draw (say the 2nd) is black equals the overall proportion of black balls, $\frac{6}{10}$ — position doesn't matter for the marginal event by symmetry. To find the conditional probability of the first draw given information about the second, we use Bayes' theorem: we need the joint probability of both events and divide by the marginal probability of the conditioning event.

    Step-by-Step Solution

    1. Total balls: 4 white (W) + 6 black (B) = 10.
    2. $P(\text{2nd is black}) = P(\text{1st B, 2nd B}) + P(\text{1st W, 2nd B})$ $= \frac{6}{10}\cdot\frac{5}{9} + \frac{4}{10}\cdot\frac{6}{9} = \frac{30}{90}+\frac{24}{90} = \frac{54}{90} = \frac{3}{5}$.
    3. $P(\text{1st black and 2nd black}) = \frac{6}{10}\cdot\frac{5}{9} = \frac{30}{90} = \frac{1}{3}$. …

    🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to see the full solution →