Q.Let A and B be two events such that P(A)=83, P(B)=85 and P(A∪B)=43. Then P(A∣B)⋅P(A′∣B) is equal to
(A) 52
(B) 83
(C) 203
(D) 256
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🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
Concept: Conditional Probability
We are given P(A)=83, P(B)=85, and P(A∪B)=43.
Step 1: Find P(A∩B)
Using the addition rule:
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
43=83+85−P(A∩B)
43=1−P(A∩B)
So P(A∩B)=1−43=41.
Step 2: Compute P(A∣B) and P(A′∣B)
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=5/81/4=41⋅58=52. …
The key idea is to use the definition of conditional probability and the complement rule. After finding P(A∩B)=41, we compute P(A∣B)=52 and P(A′∣B)=53, so their product is 256, which is option (D).
We start with the given probabilities:
P(A)=83, P(B)=85, and P(A∪B)=43.
The problem asks for P(A∣B)⋅P(A′∣B). This is a product of two conditional probabilities under the same condition B. The intuition: once we know B has occurred, the probability of A and its complement A′ must add to 1. So their product is maximized when they are balanced — but we need the exact numbers.
Step 1: Find P(A∩B) using the addition rule.
The formula for the union of two events is:
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
Substitute the known values:
43=83+85−P(A∩B)
43=1−P(A∩B)
So:
P(A∩B)=1−43=41
A common mistake is to forget that P(A∪B) cannot exceed 1, and here it is less than P(A)+P(B), confirming the events are not mutually exclusive. Always check that P(A∩B) comes out positive.
Step 2: Compute P(A∣B).
By definition:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=5/81/4=41×58=52
Step 3: Compute P(A′∣B). …
Method: Complementary conditionals under a fixed condition
Use this when a product or sum mixes P(A∣B) and P(A′∣B) under the same condition B.
Steps
Step 1: Recover the overlap and the first conditional.
Get P(A∩B) from the addition rule (or a given conditional), then
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
Step 2: Use the fixed-condition complement rule.
Given B, the outcomes A and A′ partition the reduced sample space, so
P(A′∣B)=1−P(A∣B). …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Computing P(A′∣B) from scratch instead of using 1−P(A∣B).
Why it's wrong: not a fatal error, but it wastes time and invites slips; under the same condition B, the events A and A′ partition the reduced space. Correct approach: P(A′∣B)=1−P(A∣B).
Mistake 2: Forgetting to recover P(A∩B) from the addition rule. …
Showing the 12 most recent of 69 on this concept.
- AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-23-FN1 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two events with P(A)=71, P(A/B)=52 and P(B)=72. Then the value P(B/A) is (A) 51 (B) 495 (C) 54 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Chain the conditional-probability definition twice: first get P(A∩B) from P(A/B), then get P(B/A) from that.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability is defined as P(E/F)=P(F)P(E∩F). Given one conditional probability, we can back out the joint probability P(A∩B), and then use it (with the definition again, but conditioning the other way) to find the other conditional probability.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B)⇒P(A∩B)=P(A/B)⋅P(B)=52×72=354.
- Now use P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=1/74/35. …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-26-FN1 markMCQQ.If two events A and B are such that P(Aˉ)=0.3, P(B)=0.4 and P(A∩Bˉ)=0.5, then P(B/(A∪Bˉ))= (A) 0.25 (B) 0.6 (C) 0.45 (D) 0.8
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests careful set manipulation of conditional probability with a compound conditioning event A∪Bˉ. Answer: 0.25.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability P(B∣E)=P(E)P(B∩E) works exactly the same way when E is a compound event like A∪Bˉ — we just need to correctly compute P(E) and P(B∩E) using set algebra (distributing intersection over union, and using the fact that B and Bˉ are disjoint).
Step-by-Step Solution
- From P(Aˉ)=0.3, get P(A)=1−0.3=0.7.
- P(A∩Bˉ)=0.5 is given directly, so P(A∩B)=P(A)−P(A∩Bˉ)=0.7−0.5=0.2.
- Compute P(A∪Bˉ) using inclusion-exclusion: P(A∪Bˉ)=P(A)+P(Bˉ)−P(A∩Bˉ). Here P(Bˉ)=1−0.4=0.6, so P(A∪Bˉ)=0.7+0.6−0.5=0.8. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-16-AN1 markMCQQ.Two dice are rolled. If A denote the event that the same number shows on each die and B denote the event that the sum of the numbers on both dice is greater than 7, then P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) respectively are (A) 52,41 (B) 51,21 (C) 51,41 (D) 21,53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Counting the 36 equally likely dice outcomes directly gives P(A∣B)=51 and P(B∣A)=21.
Concept and Intuition
With two fair dice there are 36 equally likely outcomes, so every probability here reduces to simple counting: enumerate the outcomes in A, in B, and in A∩B, then apply the conditional probability formula P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y) directly as a ratio of counts.
Step-by-Step Solution
- A = "same number on each die": outcomes (1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6) — 6 outcomes, so P(A)=366.
- B = "sum >7", i.e. sum ∈{8,9,10,11,12}. Counting pairs per sum: sum 8 has 5 pairs, 9 has 4, 10 has 3, 11 has 2, 12 has 1 — total 5+4+3+2+1=15 outcomes, so P(B)=3615.
- A∩B: doubles with sum >7 — check each double: (4,4) sum 8 ✓, (5,5) sum 10 ✓, (6,6) sum 12 ✓; (1,1),(2,2),(3,3) have sums 2,4,6, all ≤7 — excluded. So A∩B has 3 outcomes, P(A∩B)=363. …
- AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-25-AN1 markMCQQ.Given P(A)=0.5,P(B)=0.4,P(A∩B)=0.3 then P(A′/B′) is equal to (A) 31 (B) 21 (C) 32 (D) 43
›Reveal solutionSolution
Using De Morgan's law A′∩B′=(A∪B)′ and the conditional probability formula gives P(A′∣B′)=32.
Concept and Intuition
P(A′∣B′) asks: given we're outside B, what's the chance we're also outside A? The key trick is that A′∩B′=(A∪B)′ (De Morgan), which is easy to compute from P(A∪B).
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)=0.5+0.4−0.3=0.6.
- P(A′∩B′)=P((A∪B)′)=1−P(A∪B)=1−0.6=0.4.
- P(B′)=1−P(B)=1−0.4=0.6. …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-23-AN1 markMCQQ.A die is thrown twice. Let A be the event of getting a prime number when the die is thrown first time and B be the event of getting an even number when the die is thrown second time. Then P(A/Bˉ)= (A) 21 (B) 32 (C) 51 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Since A and B (hence Bˉ) come from two independent throws of the die, conditioning on Bˉ does not change P(A); the answer is 1/2.
Concept and Intuition
When two events are determined by physically independent trials (first throw vs second throw of a die), any conditional probability between them collapses to the unconditional probability — conditioning on an independent event changes nothing.
Step-by-Step Solution
- A: prime number on the first throw, i.e. outcome in {2,3,5}, so P(A)=63=21.
- B: even number on the second throw, i.e. outcome in {2,4,6}, so P(B)=21, and P(Bˉ)=21 (odd on the second throw). …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-23-FN1 markMCQQ.It is given that in a random experiment events A and B are such that P(A)=41, P(A∣B)=21 and P(B∣A)=32 then P(B)= (A) 31 (B) 32 (C) 21 (D) 61
›Reveal solutionSolution
Using P(B∣A) to find P(A∩B), then dividing by P(A∣B), gives P(B)=31.
Concept and Intuition
The conditional probability definitions P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B) and P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B) share the common quantity P(A∩B) — computing it from one equation lets us solve the other for the unknown probability.
Step-by-Step Solution
- From P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=32, and P(A)=41: P(A∩B)=32×41=61.
- From P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=21: P(B)=P(A∣B)P(A∩B)=1/21/6=31.
Common Mistakes …
- AP EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-05-FN1 markMCQQ.If A and B are two events such that P(B)=0 and P(B)=1, then P(Aˉ∣Bˉ) is (A) 1−P(A∣B) (B) 1−P(Aˉ∣B) (C) P(Bˉ)1−P(A∪B) (D) P(Bˉ)P(Aˉ)
›Reveal solutionSolution
Directly apply the definition of conditional probability together with De Morgan's law; the answer is P(Bˉ)1−P(A∪B).
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability is defined as P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y). Here X=Aˉ, Y=Bˉ. By De Morgan's law, Aˉ∩Bˉ=A∪B, so its probability is 1−P(A∪B).
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(Aˉ∣Bˉ)=P(Bˉ)P(Aˉ∩Bˉ).
- Aˉ∩Bˉ=A∪B (De Morgan).
- So P(Aˉ∩Bˉ)=1−P(A∪B). …
- AP EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-06-FN1 markMCQQ.Two persons P and Q are considering to apply for a job. The probability that P applies for the job is 1/4, the probability that P applies for the job given that Q applies for the job is 1/2, and the probability that Q applies for the job given that P applies for the job is 1/3. Then the probability that P does not apply for the job given that Q does not apply for the job is (A) 4/5 (B) 5/6 (C) 7/8 (D) 11/12
›Reveal solutionSolution
Chain the given conditional probabilities to find P(Q) and P(P∩Q), then use the complement rule — the answer is (A) 4/5.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability definitions let us cross-multiply to recover the joint probability P(P∩Q) from either conditional. Once P(P),P(Q),P(P∩Q) are all known, De Morgan's law converts "neither event" into the complement of the union.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Given: P(P)=41, P(P∣Q)=21, P(Q∣P)=31.
- P(P∩Q)=P(Q∣P)⋅P(P)=31×41=121.
- Also P(P∩Q)=P(P∣Q)⋅P(Q)⇒121=21⋅P(Q)⇒P(Q)=61.
- P(P∪Q)=P(P)+P(Q)−P(P∩Q)=41+61−121=123+122−121=124=31.
- By De Morgan's law, "neither P nor Q applies" is the complement of P∪Q: P(P∩Q)=1−31=32.
- P(Q)=1−P(Q)=1−61=65. …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-20-FN1 markMCQQ.A, B, C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of a random experiment and E is an event that occurs in conjunction with one of the events A, B, C. The conditional Probabilities of E given the happening of A, B, C are respectively 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1. If P(A)=0.30 and P(B)=0.50, then P(C∣E)= (A) 352 (B) 3515 (C) 3518 (D) 3517
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a direct Bayes' theorem application over three mutually exclusive, exhaustive causes; P(C∣E)=2/35.
Concept and Intuition
When an event E can occur alongside any of several mutually exclusive, exhaustive causes A,B,C, Bayes' theorem lets us find the probability of a particular cause given that E has occurred, by weighing each cause's prior probability by how likely E is under it, then normalizing.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Since A,B,C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, P(C)=1−P(A)−P(B)=1−0.30−0.50=0.20.
- Total probability of E: P(E)=P(E∣A)P(A)+P(E∣B)P(B)+P(E∣C)P(C) =0.6(0.30)+0.3(0.50)+0.1(0.20)=0.18+0.15+0.02=0.35 …
- AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-24-FN1 markMCQQ.If A and B are mutually exclusive events with P(A)=41 and P(B)=73. Then what is the value of P(A/A∪B)= (A) 197 (B) 1912 (C) 1906 (D) 1913
›Reveal solutionSolution
Mutually exclusive events make P(A∪B) a simple sum, and since A is entirely contained in A∪B, the conditional probability reduces to P(A)/P(A∪B).
Concept and Intuition
For mutually exclusive A,B: P(A∩B)=0, so P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B). Also A∩(A∪B)=A always, so P(A∣A∪B)=P(A∪B)P(A∩(A∪B))=P(A∪B)P(A).
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)=41+73.
- Common denominator 28: 287+2812=2819. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-15-AN1 markMCQQ.In a sample space, E is an event associated with the events A and B. If P(A)P(E∣A)=l and P(B)P(E∣B)=m then, P(B∣E)= (A) l+mm always (B) l+ml only when P(A)+P(B)=1 (C) l+mm only when P(A)+P(B)=1 (D) l+ml always
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests when the "total probability" decomposition P(E)=P(A∩E)+P(B∩E) is legitimate — only when A,B partition the sample space. Answer: l+mm, and only under that condition.
Concept and Intuition
Bayes' rule always gives P(B∣E)=P(B∩E)/P(E). The numerator is handed to us as m. The tricky part is the denominator: P(E) can only be written as P(A∩E)+P(B∩E)=l+m if every outcome of E passes through either A or B and not both — that is exactly the statement that {A,B} partitions the sample space, equivalent to A∩B=∅ and P(A)+P(B)=1.
Step-by-Step Solution
- From the given data, P(A∩E)=l and P(B∩E)=m.
- By definition, P(B∣E)=P(E)P(B∩E)=P(E)m.
- If (and only if) A,B partition the sample space, E=(E∩A)∪(E∩B) with no overlap, so P(E)=l+m.
- Substituting, P(B∣E)=l+mm — but this substitution is valid only under the partition condition P(A)+P(B)=1. …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-19-AN1 markMCQQ.There are 2 bags each containing 3 white and 5 black balls and 4 bags each containing 6 white and 4 black balls. If a ball drawn randomly from a bag is found to be black, then the probability that this ball is from the first set of bags is (A) 5725 (B) 4125 (C) 52 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
A classic Bayes'-theorem (inverse-probability) question: given the ball drawn is black, find the probability it came from the first group of bags. Answer: 5725.
Concept and Intuition
When an experiment happens in two stages — first a bag is picked (from one of two groups of bags), then a ball is drawn from it — and we're told the result of the second stage (a black ball came out), Bayes' theorem lets us reverse the direction of reasoning and find the probability about the first stage (which group the bag was from). The prior probability of picking from a group is proportional to how many bags are in that group (each individual bag is equally likely to be picked), and then we weight by how likely that group is to produce the observed outcome.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Groups and priors. Group 1 (call it S1) has 2 bags (each 3 white, 5 black — 8 balls). Group 2 (S2) has 4 bags (each 6 white, 4 black — 10 balls). Total bags =6, each equally likely to be chosen, so
P(S1)=62=31,P(S2)=64=32.
- Likelihoods of drawing black. From a group-1 bag: P(B∣S1)=85. From a group-2 bag: P(B∣S2)=104=52.
- Total probability of drawing a black ball (law of total probability): P(B)=P(S1)P(B∣S1)+P(S2)P(B∣S2)=31⋅85+32⋅52=245+154. …
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