Q.Three persons, A, B and C, fire at a target in turn, starting with A. Their probabilities of hitting the target are 0.4, 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. The probability of two hits is
(A) 0.024
(B) 0.188
(C) 0.336
(D) 0.452
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🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Event Independence
Event Independence
Two events are independent when the occurrence of one does not change the probability of the other. Toss a coin and roll a die: the coin landing heads tells you nothing about whether the die shows a six. Contrast this with drawing cards without replacement, where the first draw does change the odds for the second — those events are dependent.
From Conditional Probability to a Clean Test
"Knowing B doesn't change A" means P(A∣B)=P(A). Substituting the definition P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B) and clearing the fraction gives the symmetric form used in practice:
P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B).
Events A and B are independent exactly when the probability of both occurring equals the product of their individual probabilities. This version is preferred because it needs no non-zero condition and treats A and B alike.
A Quick Check
Roll a fair die. Let A={2,4,6} (even) and B={4,5,6} (greater than 3). Then P(A)=P(B)=21, and A∩B={4,6} so P(A∩B)=31. Since 31=21⋅21=41, these events are not independent.
Three or More Events
Events A,B,C are mutually independent only if all four conditions hold: the three pairwise products and
P(A∩B∩C)=P(A)P(B)P(C).
Pairwise independence alone is not enough to guarantee mutual independence. …
Concept: Conditional Probability — each shot is independent, and the order of firing matters only for who shoots when.
Step 1 – List all ways to get exactly two hits
The three persons fire in order A, B, C. Two hits means one misses. The three cases:
- A and B hit, C misses
- A and C hit, B misses
- B and C hit, A misses
Step 2 – Compute each probability
Given P(A)=0.4, P(B)=0.3, P(C)=0.2, and misses are complements:
- Case 1: 0.4×0.3×(1−0.2)=0.4×0.3×0.8=0.096
- Case 2: 0.4×(1−0.3)×0.2=0.4×0.7×0.2=0.056 …
The problem asks for the probability of exactly two hits when A, B, and C fire in turn with probabilities 0.4, 0.3, and 0.2. Since each person fires exactly once, we consider all combinations where exactly two hit and one misses, then sum their probabilities. The answer is 0.188.
Why conditional probability isn’t needed here
A common trap is to think “they fire in turn, so later shooters depend on earlier ones.” But the problem states each person fires exactly once, and their hits are independent events. The order of firing doesn’t affect the probability of a given combination — it only determines who shoots when. So we simply treat A, B, and C as three independent trials with given success probabilities.
The phrase “in turn” just tells us the sequence, not that later shooters only fire if earlier ones miss. Each fires regardless. So the probability of two hits is the sum over all ways to choose which two hit and which one misses.
Step-by-step
-
List the three possible cases for exactly two hits
- A and B hit, C misses
- A and C hit, B misses
- B and C hit, A misses
No other combination gives exactly two hits.
-
Compute each case using independence
For independent events, P(A hits and B hits and C misses)=P(A)⋅P(B)⋅P(Cc).
Similarly for the others.
- Case 1: A hits (0.4), B hits (0.3), C misses (1−0.2=0.8)
0.4×0.3×0.8=0.096
- Case 2: A hits (0.4), B misses (1−0.3=0.7), C hits (0.2)
0.4×0.7×0.2=0.056
- Case 3: A misses (1−0.4=0.6), B hits (0.3), C hits (0.2) 0.6×0.3×0.2=0.036 …
Method: Exactly "k of n" independent events with different probabilities
Use this whenever several independent events each occur once, each with its own probability, and you want exactly a certain number of them to happen.
Steps
Step 1: Confirm independence and list the individual probabilities.
Check that no event's outcome changes another's probability. Write each success probability pi and its complement (failure) qi=1−pi. The multiplication theorem for independent events, P(E1∩E2∩…)=P(E1)P(E2)⋯, is what lets you multiply.
Step 2: List every case that gives exactly the required number of successes.
For "exactly k of n", choose which k events succeed and which n−k fail — there are (kn) such cases. Because the probabilities differ, you cannot collapse them into one term; keep them separate. …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Multiplying all three hit probabilities, 0.4×0.3×0.2=0.024.
Why it's wrong: that product is the probability of three hits (everyone hits), not two. Correct approach: exactly two hits requires exactly one miss, so include a miss factor (1−p) for the person who misses.
Mistake 2: Forgetting the miss probability is 1−p, not p.
Why it's wrong: using the hitter's probability for the person who misses double-counts hits. Correct approach: the misser contributes 1−p (e.g. C misses with 1−0.2=0.8). …
Showing the 12 most recent of 16 on this concept.
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-14-FN1 markMCQQ.Let E1,E2 and E3 be mutually independent events Statement I: E1 and E2∪E3 are independent Statement II: E1 and E2∩E3 are independent Which one of the following options is correct? (A) Both I and II are true (B) Only I is true (C) Only II is true (D) Both I and II are false
›Reveal solutionSolution
Mutual independence of E1,E2,E3 guarantees E1 is independent of every Boolean combination of E2,E3 (unions, intersections, complements). Both statements are true — option (A).
Concept and Intuition
Mutual independence of three events means every subset of them satisfies the product rule: P(Ei∩Ej)=P(Ei)P(Ej) for all pairs, and P(E1∩E2∩E3)=P(E1)P(E2)P(E3). A standard consequence is that any event generated from E2 and E3 alone (via ∪,∩,c) remains independent of E1, because independence of E1 from E2 and from E3 combines nicely through inclusion-exclusion and De Morgan's laws.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Statement I: Check P(E1∩(E2∪E3))=P(E1)P(E2∪E3).
P(E1∩(E2∪E3))=P((E1∩E2)∪(E1∩E3))=P(E1∩E2)+P(E1∩E3)−P(E1∩E2∩E3)
=P(E1)P(E2)+P(E1)P(E3)−P(E1)P(E2)P(E3)(using mutual independence)
=P(E1)[P(E2)+P(E3)−P(E2)P(E3)]=P(E1)P(E2∪E3).
So Statement I is true.
2. Statement II: Check P(E1∩(E2∩E3))=P(E1)P(E2∩E3).
P(E1∩E2∩E3)=P(E1)P(E2)P(E3)(mutual independence, directly) …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-14-AN1 markMCQQ.If A,B,C are independent events of a random experiment such that P(A)=3/4, P(B)=5/6 and P(C)=2/3, then the probability that exactly one of the events occur is (A) 41 (B) 365 (C) 125 (D) 7271
›Reveal solutionSolution
Sum the three mutually exclusive ways exactly one of three independent events can occur. Answer: 365.
Concept and Intuition
For independent events, "exactly one occurs" means one event happens and the other two fail, and there are three such disjoint scenarios (which one occurs). Because the events are independent, each scenario's probability is simply the product of the individual (or complementary) probabilities, and we add the three scenarios since they can't happen simultaneously.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Complements: P(A′)=1−43=41, P(B′)=1−65=61, P(C′)=1−32=31.
- Scenario "only A": P(A)P(B′)P(C′)=43⋅61⋅31=723.
- Scenario "only B": P(A′)P(B)P(C′)=41⋅65⋅31=725. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-13-AN1 markMCQQ.A, B, C are three independent events of a random experiment such that P(C)=2/3. If probabilities of occurrence of only A, only B and only C are respectively 604,603 and 602, then the ratio of the probability of the occurrence of A to the occurrence of B is (A) 16:15 (B) 4:3 (C) 12:25 (D) 2:3
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests setting up "only-one-event" probabilities for independent events as products with complements, then solving the resulting system for P(A) and P(B).
Concept and Intuition
For independent events, "only A occurs" means A happens and both B,C fail: P(A)(1−P(B))(1−P(C)). Writing this out for all three "only" events gives three equations in the two unknowns p=P(A) and q=P(B) (since P(C) is already known) — enough to solve completely, with the third equation serving as a consistency check.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Let p=P(A), q=P(B), and P(C)=32 so 1−P(C)=31.
- Only A: p(1−q)⋅31=604=151⇒p(1−q)=51.
- Only B: (1−p)q⋅31=603=201⇒(1−p)q=203.
- Only C: (1−p)(1−q)⋅32=602=301⇒(1−p)(1−q)=201.
- From steps 2 and 3: p−pq=51 and q−pq=203; subtracting, p−q=51−203=201, so p=q+201.
- Expand step 4: 1−p−q+pq=201. Using pq=p−51 from step 2: 1−p−q+p−51=201⇒54−q=201⇒q=54−201=2015=43. …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-26-AN1 markMCQQ.A and B are two independent events of a random experiment and P(A)>P(B). If the probability that both A and B occur is 61 and neither of them occurs is 31, then the probability of the occurance of B is (A) 41 (B) 31 (C) 21 (D) 83
›Reveal solutionSolution
Translate the two given probabilities into a sum and a product of P(A),P(B) using independence, then solve the resulting quadratic and pick the smaller root.
Concept and Intuition
For independent events, P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B) and P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)=(1−P(A))(1−P(B)). These two equations in p=P(A) and q=P(B) can be converted into their sum and product, which is exactly what's needed to solve a quadratic for p,q.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Let p=P(A), q=P(B), with p>q (given P(A)>P(B)).
- P(A∩B)=pq=61 (independence).
- P(A∩B)=(1−p)(1−q)=31.
- Expand: 1−p−q+pq=31. Substitute pq=61: 1−(p+q)+61=31⇒p+q=1+61−31=65.
- So p,q are roots of t2−65t+61=0, i.e. 6t2−5t+1=0. …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-22-AN1 markMCQQ.E1 and E2 are two independent events of a random experiment such that P(E1)=21 and P(E1∪E2)=32. Then match the items of List-I with the items of List-II. List-I: (A) P(E2) (B) P(E1/E2) (C) P(E2/E1) (D) P(E1∪E2) List-II:(i) 21(ii) 65(iii) 31(iv) 61(v) 32 The correct match is (A) A-iii; B-iv; C-i; D-v (B) A-iii; B-i; C-v; D-ii (C) A-i; B-v; C-ii; D-iv (D) A-v; B-i; C-iii; D-ii
›Reveal solutionSolution
Using independence, P(E2)=31, and all four quantities reduce cleanly, matching A-iii, B-i, C-v, D-ii.
Concept and Intuition
For independent events, conditional probabilities collapse to unconditional ones: P(E1∣E2)=P(E1) and P(E2∣E1)=P(E2). Also P(E1∪E2)=1−P(E1∩E2)=1−P(E1)P(E2) by De Morgan's law.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(E1∪E2)=P(E1)+P(E2)−P(E1)P(E2): 32=21+P(E2)−21P(E2)⇒32−21=21P(E2)⇒61=21P(E2)⇒P(E2)=31.
- (A) P(E2)=31 → matches (iii).
- (B) P(E1/E2)=P(E1)=21 (independence) → matches (i).
- (C) P(E2/E1)=P(E2)=1−31=32 (independence) → matches (v). …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-15-AN1 markMCQQ.A coin is tossed three times. Let A be the event of "getting three heads" and B be the event of "getting a head on the first toss". Then A and B are (A) Dependent events (B) Independent events (C) Impossible events (D) Certain events
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(A∩B)=81 but P(A)P(B)=161, so A and B are dependent.
Concept and Intuition
Two events are independent exactly when knowing one has occurred does not change the probability of the other — formally P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B), equivalently P(A∣B)=P(A).
Here B ("first toss is a head") is part of the requirement for A ("all three heads"). Learning that B happened is genuine good news for A: it eliminates half the sample space, all of it unfavourable to A. So A must depend on B. Note carefully: the three tosses are independent of one another, but these two events are not — they are defined on overlapping information.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Sample space of three tosses: {HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT} — 8 equally likely outcomes.
- A={HHH}⇒P(A)=81.
- B={HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT}⇒P(B)=84=21.
- A∩B={HHH}⇒P(A∩B)=81.
- Test independence: P(A)⋅P(B)=81×21=161, while P(A∩B)=81. Since 161=81, the events are dependent. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-16-AN1 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two independent events of a random experiment. If the probability that both A and B occur is 61 and the probability that neither of them occur is 31, then the probability of occurrence of A is (A) 0 or 1 (B) 21 or 41 (C) 21 or 31 (D) 21 or 71
›Reveal solutionSolution
From P(A)P(B)=61 and (1−P(A))(1−P(B))=31, we get P(A)+P(B)=65, and solving the resulting quadratic gives P(A)=21 or 31.
Concept and Intuition
Independence lets us write both given probabilities as simple products: P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B) and P(Aˉ∩Bˉ)=P(Aˉ)P(Bˉ) (since complements of independent events are also independent). This turns the problem into finding two numbers whose product and a related "complement product" are both known — a job for Vieta's formulas.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Let p=P(A), q=P(B). Given: pq=61 (product rule for independent events).
- Also given: P(neither)=P(A′∩B′)=(1−p)(1−q)=31.
- Expand: 1−p−q+pq=31⇒1−(p+q)+61=31⇒p+q=1+61−31=65.
- So p,q are roots of t2−65t+61=0. Multiply by 6: 6t2−5t+1=0. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-16-FN1 markMCQQ.A and B are independent events of a random experiment if and only if (A) P(A∣B)=P(A∩B) (B) P(A∣B)=P(B∣A) (C) P(A∣B)=P(A∣Bc) (D) P(A∣B)=P(A∣Bc)
›Reveal solutionSolution
Independence means knowing whether B occurred (or didn't) doesn't affect A's probability — precisely captured by P(A∣B)=P(A∣Bc).
Concept and Intuition
Two events A and B are independent exactly when P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B), equivalently P(A∣B)=P(A) (given P(B)>0). A useful equivalent characterization avoids referencing the unconditional P(A) directly: independence holds iff P(A∣B)=P(A∣Bc). Intuitively, if learning "B happened" gives exactly the same probability for A as learning "B didn't happen," then knowledge of B carries no information about A — which is the essence of independence.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Suppose A, B independent: P(A∣B)=P(A). Also P(A∣Bc)=P(Bc)P(A∩Bc)=1−P(B)P(A)−P(A∩B)=1−P(B)P(A)−P(A)P(B)=1−P(B)P(A)(1−P(B))=P(A).
- So independence implies P(A∣B)=P(A∣Bc)(=P(A)).
- Conversely, if P(A∣B)=P(A∣Bc)=k for some constant k, then using the law of total probability, P(A)=P(A∣B)P(B)+P(A∣Bc)P(Bc)=kP(B)+kP(Bc)=k. So P(A∣B)=P(A)=k, which is exactly the definition of independence.
- Hence P(A∣B)=P(A∣Bc) is a necessary and sufficient condition for independence. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-18-FN1 markMCQQ.If A,B and C are three independent events of a random experiment such that P(A∩Bc∩Cc)=41, P(Ac∩B∩Cc)=81 and P(Ac∩Bc∩Cc)=41, then P(A), P(B) and P(C) are respectively (A) 21,41,51 (B) 1,21,31 (C) 21,31,41 (D) 31,41,51
›Reveal solutionSolution
Comparing the equation for P(A∩Bc∩Cc) with the one for P(Ac∩Bc∩Cc) immediately forces P(A)=21; back-substitution then gives P(B)=31,P(C)=41.
Concept and Intuition
For independent events, P(A∩Bc∩Cc)=p(1−q)(1−r) and similar products for the other combinations. Since two of the given equations share the identical factor (1−q)(1−r), equating them directly isolates p without solving a full system.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A∩Bc∩Cc)=p(1−q)(1−r)=41 ... (i)
- P(Ac∩B∩Cc)=(1−p)q(1−r)=81 ... (ii)
- P(Ac∩Bc∩Cc)=(1−p)(1−q)(1−r)=41 ... (iii)
- From (i) and (iii): p(1−q)(1−r)=(1−p)(1−q)(1−r); since (1−q)(1−r)=0, this gives p=1−p⇒p=21.
- Substitute into (i): 21(1−q)(1−r)=41⇒(1−q)(1−r)=21.
- Substitute into (ii): 21q(1−r)=81⇒q(1−r)=41. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-18-FN1 markMCQQ.If X1,X2,…Xn are n independent events such that P(Xr)=r+11,r=1,2,…,n, then the probability that none of the n events occur is (A) n1 (B) n+11 (C) n+1n (D) n+2n+1
›Reveal solutionSolution
Multiply (1−P(Xr))=r+1r across r=1,…,n; the product telescopes to n+11.
Concept and Intuition
For independent events, the probability none occur is the product of each event's complement probability. Here each complement has a special telescoping form r+1r, so consecutive numerators and denominators cancel.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(Xrc)=1−r+11=r+1r.
- By independence, P(none occur)=r=1∏nr+1r=21⋅32⋅43⋯n+1n. …
- AP EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-05-FN1 markMCQQ.Two brothers X and Y appeared for an exam. Let A be the event that X has passed the exam and B is the event that Y has passed. The probability of A is 71 and of B is 92. Then, the probability that both of them pass the exam is (A) 631 (B) 352 (C) 632 (D) 149
›Reveal solutionSolution
Two brothers' exam outcomes are independent events, so their joint probability is the product; the answer is 632.
Concept and Intuition
When two events are independent (one brother's pass/fail doesn't affect the other's), the probability that both occur is the product of their individual probabilities: P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B).
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A)=71, P(B)=92.
- Both pass (independent events): P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B)=71×92=632. …
- AP EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-07-FN1 markMCQQ.If A and B are two independent events such that P(A)=0.3, P(B)=x and P(A∪B)=0.44, then x= (A) 0.1 (B) 0.4 (C) 0.3 (D) 0.2
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests the union formula for independent events; solving 0.44=0.3+x−0.3x gives x=0.2.
Concept and Intuition
For any two events, P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B). When A and B are independent,
P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B), which turns the union formula into a single equation in the unknown
probability.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A)=0.3, P(B)=x, P(A∪B)=0.44, with A,B independent.
- P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A)P(B)=0.3+x−0.3x.
- Set equal to 0.44: 0.3+0.7x=0.44.
- 0.7x=0.14⇒x=0.2.
Common Mistakes …
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