Q.Two events E and F are independent. If P(E)=0.3, P(E∪F)=0.5, then P(E∣F)−P(F∣E) equals
(A) 72
(B) 353
(C) 701
(D) 71
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🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
Concept: Conditional Probability & Independence
Since E and F are independent, P(E∩F)=P(E)⋅P(F).
Step 1: Use the union formula:
P(E∪F)=P(E)+P(F)−P(E∩F)
Substitute P(E∪F)=0.5, P(E)=0.3, and P(E∩F)=0.3⋅P(F):
0.5=0.3+P(F)−0.3P(F)
Step 2: Simplify:
0.5=0.3+0.7P(F)⇒0.2=0.7P(F)⇒P(F)=72 …
For independent events, P(E∣F)=P(E) and P(F∣E)=P(F). The difference reduces to P(E)−P(F). Using P(E∪F)=P(E)+P(F)−P(E)P(F) we find P(F)=72, so the answer is 0.3−72=701.
The key idea here is that independence simplifies conditional probability drastically. When two events are independent, knowing that one occurred gives you no information about the other — so the conditional probability is just the unconditional probability. That means:
P(E∣F)=P(E)andP(F∣E)=P(F)
Therefore, the expression we need becomes simply:
P(E∣F)−P(F∣E)=P(E)−P(F)
We already know P(E)=0.3. So the whole problem reduces to finding P(F).
- Use the union formula for independent events. For any two events, P(E∪F)=P(E)+P(F)−P(E∩F). Because E and F are independent, P(E∩F)=P(E)⋅P(F). So:
P(E∪F)=P(E)+P(F)−P(E)P(F)
- Plug in the known values. P(E∪F)=0.5 and P(E)=0.3. Let p=P(F). Then:
0.5=0.3+p−(0.3)p
Simplify:
0.5=0.3+p−0.3p
0.5=0.3+0.7p
- Solve for p. Subtract 0.3 from both sides:
0.2=0.7p
So:
p=0.70.2=72 …
Method: Independence + addition rule to find a missing probability
Use this when events are independent, a union is known, but one marginal is missing and conditionals are asked.
Steps
Step 1: Write the union with the independence product.
Since P(E∩F)=P(E)P(F),
P(E∪F)=P(E)+P(F)−P(E)P(F).
Step 2: Solve the linear equation for the unknown marginal.
With every quantity except P(F) known, isolate P(F) — it appears linearly. …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Writing P(E∪F)=P(E)+P(F) and dropping the overlap.
Why it's wrong: even for independent events the overlap P(E)P(F) must be subtracted. Correct approach: P(E∪F)=P(E)+P(F)−P(E)P(F), then solve for P(F).
Mistake 2: Computing the conditionals with the full formula unnecessarily — or worse, mis-simplifying them. …
Showing the 12 most recent of 69 on this concept.
- AP EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-06-FN1 markMCQQ.If E and F are events such that P(Fˉ)=0.7 and P(E∩F)=0.2, then P(E∣F) is (A) 2/3 (B) 1/3 (C) 3/4 (D) 1/4
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests the basic conditional-probability formula together with the complement rule. P(E∣F)=2/3.
Concept and Intuition
P(E∣F) asks: given that F has already happened, what fraction of that reduced sample space does E∩F occupy? It is always P(F)P(E∩F), so first we need P(F) itself, which is given indirectly through its complement.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(Fˉ)=0.7⇒P(F)=1−0.7=0.3.
- P(E∩F)=0.2 is given directly. …
- AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-23-FN1 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two events with P(A)=71, P(A/B)=52 and P(B)=72. Then the value P(B/A) is (A) 51 (B) 495 (C) 54 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Chain the conditional-probability definition twice: first get P(A∩B) from P(A/B), then get P(B/A) from that.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability is defined as P(E/F)=P(F)P(E∩F). Given one conditional probability, we can back out the joint probability P(A∩B), and then use it (with the definition again, but conditioning the other way) to find the other conditional probability.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B)⇒P(A∩B)=P(A/B)⋅P(B)=52×72=354.
- Now use P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=1/74/35. …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-20-FN1 markMCQQ.A, B, C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of a random experiment and E is an event that occurs in conjunction with one of the events A, B, C. The conditional Probabilities of E given the happening of A, B, C are respectively 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1. If P(A)=0.30 and P(B)=0.50, then P(C∣E)= (A) 352 (B) 3515 (C) 3518 (D) 3517
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a direct Bayes' theorem application over three mutually exclusive, exhaustive causes; P(C∣E)=2/35.
Concept and Intuition
When an event E can occur alongside any of several mutually exclusive, exhaustive causes A,B,C, Bayes' theorem lets us find the probability of a particular cause given that E has occurred, by weighing each cause's prior probability by how likely E is under it, then normalizing.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Since A,B,C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, P(C)=1−P(A)−P(B)=1−0.30−0.50=0.20.
- Total probability of E: P(E)=P(E∣A)P(A)+P(E∣B)P(B)+P(E∣C)P(C) =0.6(0.30)+0.3(0.50)+0.1(0.20)=0.18+0.15+0.02=0.35 …
- AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-25-AN1 markMCQQ.Given P(A)=0.5,P(B)=0.4,P(A∩B)=0.3 then P(A′/B′) is equal to (A) 31 (B) 21 (C) 32 (D) 43
›Reveal solutionSolution
Using De Morgan's law A′∩B′=(A∪B)′ and the conditional probability formula gives P(A′∣B′)=32.
Concept and Intuition
P(A′∣B′) asks: given we're outside B, what's the chance we're also outside A? The key trick is that A′∩B′=(A∪B)′ (De Morgan), which is easy to compute from P(A∪B).
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)=0.5+0.4−0.3=0.6.
- P(A′∩B′)=P((A∪B)′)=1−P(A∪B)=1−0.6=0.4.
- P(B′)=1−P(B)=1−0.4=0.6. …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-26-FN1 markMCQQ.If two events A and B are such that P(Aˉ)=0.3, P(B)=0.4 and P(A∩Bˉ)=0.5, then P(B/(A∪Bˉ))= (A) 0.25 (B) 0.6 (C) 0.45 (D) 0.8
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests careful set manipulation of conditional probability with a compound conditioning event A∪Bˉ. Answer: 0.25.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability P(B∣E)=P(E)P(B∩E) works exactly the same way when E is a compound event like A∪Bˉ — we just need to correctly compute P(E) and P(B∩E) using set algebra (distributing intersection over union, and using the fact that B and Bˉ are disjoint).
Step-by-Step Solution
- From P(Aˉ)=0.3, get P(A)=1−0.3=0.7.
- P(A∩Bˉ)=0.5 is given directly, so P(A∩B)=P(A)−P(A∩Bˉ)=0.7−0.5=0.2.
- Compute P(A∪Bˉ) using inclusion-exclusion: P(A∪Bˉ)=P(A)+P(Bˉ)−P(A∩Bˉ). Here P(Bˉ)=1−0.4=0.6, so P(A∪Bˉ)=0.7+0.6−0.5=0.8. …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-22-AN1 markMCQQ.There are three families F1,F2,F3. F1 has 2 boys and 1 girl; F2 has 1 boy and 2 girls; F3 has 1 boy and 1 girl. A family is randomly chosen and a child is chosen from that family randomly. If it is known that the child thus selected is a girl, then the probability that she is from F2 is (A) 94 (B) 92 (C) 73 (D) 75
›Reveal solutionSolution
Applying Bayes' theorem across the three equally-likely families gives P(F2∣girl)=94.
Concept and Intuition
This is a textbook application of Bayes' theorem: we're given the reverse conditional probabilities (family → probability of picking a girl) and asked for the forward one (girl picked → probability she's from a specific family).
Step-by-Step Solution
- Prior: P(F1)=P(F2)=P(F3)=31.
- P(girl∣F1)=31 (1 girl out of 3 children), P(girl∣F2)=32, P(girl∣F3)=21.
- Total probability: P(girl)=31⋅31+31⋅32+31⋅21=31(31+32+21)=31⋅62+4+3=31⋅69=21
- P(F2∩girl)=31⋅32=92. …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-23-AN1 markMCQQ.A die is thrown twice. Let A be the event of getting a prime number when the die is thrown first time and B be the event of getting an even number when the die is thrown second time. Then P(A/Bˉ)= (A) 21 (B) 32 (C) 51 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Since A and B (hence Bˉ) come from two independent throws of the die, conditioning on Bˉ does not change P(A); the answer is 1/2.
Concept and Intuition
When two events are determined by physically independent trials (first throw vs second throw of a die), any conditional probability between them collapses to the unconditional probability — conditioning on an independent event changes nothing.
Step-by-Step Solution
- A: prime number on the first throw, i.e. outcome in {2,3,5}, so P(A)=63=21.
- B: even number on the second throw, i.e. outcome in {2,4,6}, so P(B)=21, and P(Bˉ)=21 (odd on the second throw). …
- AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-24-FN1 markMCQQ.If A and B are mutually exclusive events with P(A)=41 and P(B)=73. Then what is the value of P(A/A∪B)= (A) 197 (B) 1912 (C) 1906 (D) 1913
›Reveal solutionSolution
Mutually exclusive events make P(A∪B) a simple sum, and since A is entirely contained in A∪B, the conditional probability reduces to P(A)/P(A∪B).
Concept and Intuition
For mutually exclusive A,B: P(A∩B)=0, so P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B). Also A∩(A∪B)=A always, so P(A∣A∪B)=P(A∪B)P(A∩(A∪B))=P(A∪B)P(A).
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)=41+73.
- Common denominator 28: 287+2812=2819. …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-22-FN1 markMCQQ.A bag contains 6 balls. If three balls are drawn at a time and all of them are found to be green, then the probability that exactly 5 of the balls in the bag are green is: (A) 354 (B) 355 (C) 72 (D) 71
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a Bayes'-theorem problem: given a uniform prior on the unknown number of green balls in the bag, update the belief after observing 3 green balls drawn. Answer: 2/7.
Concept and Intuition
Before drawing, any number of green balls from 0 to 6 is equally likely (7 equally likely hypotheses). Observing "all 3 drawn balls are green" is much more likely under hypotheses with more green balls, so Bayes' theorem reweights the prior toward higher k. We want the posterior probability that k=5.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Prior: P(k green balls)=71 for k=0,1,…,6.
- Likelihood of drawing 3 balls, all green, given k green balls out of 6: P(all green∣k)=(36)(3k)=20(3k) (zero for k<3).
- Compute: k=3:(33)=1⇒1/20; k=4:(34)=4⇒4/20; k=5:(35)=10⇒10/20; k=6:(36)=20⇒20/20=1. …
- AP EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-06-FN1 markMCQQ.Two persons P and Q are considering to apply for a job. The probability that P applies for the job is 1/4, the probability that P applies for the job given that Q applies for the job is 1/2, and the probability that Q applies for the job given that P applies for the job is 1/3. Then the probability that P does not apply for the job given that Q does not apply for the job is (A) 4/5 (B) 5/6 (C) 7/8 (D) 11/12
›Reveal solutionSolution
Chain the given conditional probabilities to find P(Q) and P(P∩Q), then use the complement rule — the answer is (A) 4/5.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability definitions let us cross-multiply to recover the joint probability P(P∩Q) from either conditional. Once P(P),P(Q),P(P∩Q) are all known, De Morgan's law converts "neither event" into the complement of the union.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Given: P(P)=41, P(P∣Q)=21, P(Q∣P)=31.
- P(P∩Q)=P(Q∣P)⋅P(P)=31×41=121.
- Also P(P∩Q)=P(P∣Q)⋅P(Q)⇒121=21⋅P(Q)⇒P(Q)=61.
- P(P∪Q)=P(P)+P(Q)−P(P∩Q)=41+61−121=123+122−121=124=31.
- By De Morgan's law, "neither P nor Q applies" is the complement of P∪Q: P(P∩Q)=1−31=32.
- P(Q)=1−P(Q)=1−61=65. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-16-AN1 markMCQQ.Two dice are rolled. If A denote the event that the same number shows on each die and B denote the event that the sum of the numbers on both dice is greater than 7, then P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) respectively are (A) 52,41 (B) 51,21 (C) 51,41 (D) 21,53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Counting the 36 equally likely dice outcomes directly gives P(A∣B)=51 and P(B∣A)=21.
Concept and Intuition
With two fair dice there are 36 equally likely outcomes, so every probability here reduces to simple counting: enumerate the outcomes in A, in B, and in A∩B, then apply the conditional probability formula P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y) directly as a ratio of counts.
Step-by-Step Solution
- A = "same number on each die": outcomes (1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6) — 6 outcomes, so P(A)=366.
- B = "sum >7", i.e. sum ∈{8,9,10,11,12}. Counting pairs per sum: sum 8 has 5 pairs, 9 has 4, 10 has 3, 11 has 2, 12 has 1 — total 5+4+3+2+1=15 outcomes, so P(B)=3615.
- A∩B: doubles with sum >7 — check each double: (4,4) sum 8 ✓, (5,5) sum 10 ✓, (6,6) sum 12 ✓; (1,1),(2,2),(3,3) have sums 2,4,6, all ≤7 — excluded. So A∩B has 3 outcomes, P(A∩B)=363. …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-24-FN1 markMCQQ.An item is tested on a device for its defectiveness. The probability that such an item is defective is 0.3. The device gives accurate result in 8 out of 10 such tests. If the device reports that an item tested is not defective, then the probability that it is actually defective is (A) 152 (B) 293 (C) 313 (D) 514
›Reveal solutionSolution
A direct Bayes'-theorem inversion problem; the item is actually defective with probability 313 given a "not defective" report — option (C).
Concept and Intuition
The device's report can be wrong. To find the true state given an observed (possibly wrong) report, we must weigh both ways the report could have arisen: a genuinely non-defective item correctly reported as such, or a genuinely defective item incorrectly reported as non-defective. Bayes' theorem combines these.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Let D: item defective, P(D)=0.3; D′: item not defective, P(D′)=0.7.
- Device accuracy =0.8, so it errs with probability 0.2.
- "Reports not defective" while the item is defective means the device made an error: P(report ND∣D)=0.2.
- "Reports not defective" while the item is not defective means the device was accurate: P(report ND∣D′)=0.8. …
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