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Miscellaneous 9 - II · Q93

Q.Consider independent trials consisting of rolling a pair of fair dice, over and over. What is the probability that a sum of 5 appears before a sum of 7?

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P(sum=5)=4/36=1/9P(\text{sum}=5)=4/36=1/9 (pairs (1,4),(2,3),(3,2),(4,1)(1,4),(2,3),(3,2),(4,1)); P(sum=7)=6/36=1/6P(\text{sum}=7)=6/36=1/6. On any roll that is neither 5 nor 7, the process simply repeats, so only the relative likelihood of 5 versus 7 matters: $$P(5\text{ before }7)=\frac{P(5)}{P(5)+P(7)}=\frac{1/9}{1/9+1/6}=\frac{1/9}{5/18}=\frac{2}{9}\times\frac{9}{5}= …

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